全球经济向好，令人们信心倍增。然而风险总是与机遇并存，当前情势下，我们还需要更多，更有效的政策来构建世界经济的大厦，让它耐久，实用而且美观。

Building a More Resilient and Inclusive Global Economy

建立一个更具韧性和包容性的全球经济

Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director

国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德

Bruegel

布勒哲尔研究所

April 12, 2017

2017年4月12日

Thank you, Jean-Claude Trichet and Guntram Wolff, for your kind introductions. And thank you to Bruegel for hosting this event here at the wonderful Bibliothèque Solvay. 

感谢让-克劳德·特里谢和甘特拉姆·沃尔夫的热情介绍。同时，还要感谢布勒哲尔研究所选择在美丽的索韦图书馆主办这次会议。

As I experience this beautiful building, it reminds me that good architecture is not about geometry or design in the first instance – it is about fostering human relationships in private and in public spaces. 

置身于这座精美的建筑，我联想到，好的建筑首先不在于它的几何结构或设计形式，而在于促进私人和公共空间内的人际关系。

I hear about this often from my son who is an architect – and I also thought about it when reading about the Pritzker Prize – the “Nobel prize” of architecture. 

我常常听我儿子说起这一点，他是一名建筑师；而且，我在读到建筑界的“诺贝尔奖”——普利兹克建筑奖的相关消息时也曾琢磨了一番。

Last month, when a little-known firm in Catalonia was announced as the winner of this year’s prize, the jury said: 

上个月，当宣布加泰罗尼亚一家不知名的公司获得了今年的普利兹克建筑奖时，评奖团指出：

“More and more people fear that because of international influence, we will lose our local values, our local art, and our local customs. The prize winners help us to see that we can aspire to have both – our roots firmly in place and our arms outstretched to the rest of the world.”

“越来越多的人害怕我们会由于国际影响而丧失自己的本土价值观、自己的本土艺术以及自己的地方习俗。这几位获奖者帮助我们认识到，两方面 的追求可以并行不悖——在深深扎根于本土的同时，向世界的其他地方张开怀抱。”

Being concerned with the global economic and financial architecture, we should take inspiration from this statement. 

我们既然关注全球经济和金融的架构，就理应从上述言论中获得启迪。

We are at a moment where the global economy needs both – a foundation of sound domestic policies combined with a steadfast commitment to international cooperation. 

当今时代，全球经济同时有两方面的需要——既需要建立稳健的国内政策基础，又需要坚定致力于开展国际合作。

We need these two elements – the domestic as well as the international – to create a more resilient global economy with sustainable, more durable, and more inclusive growth. 

我们需要利用上述国内和国际两方面因素，创建一个韧性更强的全球经济，同时形成可持续、更持久、更包容的经济增长。

Outlook

前景

The good news is that, after six years of disappointing growth, the world economy is gaining momentum as a cyclical recovery holds out the promise of more jobs, higher incomes, and greater prosperity going forward.

眼下的好消息是，经过六年令人失望的增长后，世界经济势头正在加强，周期性复苏带来了今后就业机会增加、收入水平上升、繁荣程度提高的希望。

But just as we see this momentum unfolding, we also see – at least in some advanced economies – doubts about the benefits of economic integration, about the very “architecture” that has underpinned the world economy for more than seven decades. 

但是，随着世界经济增长势头加强，我们也看到，至少在某些发达经济体，存在着对经济一体化的惠益的怀疑，存在着对七十多年来支撑世界经济的“建筑”本身的怀疑。

These issues will be on the minds of finance ministers and central bankers from the IMF’s 189 member countries when they meet in Washington next week for our Spring Meetings. 

当基金组织189个成员国的财政部长和央行行长下周齐聚华盛顿出席我们的春季会议时，这些问题将成为他们关注的焦点。

They will assess the state of the global economy and, as usual, we will release our World Economic Outlook a few days before the meeting. Today, I will touch on some broad trends. 

他们将对全球经济状况作出评估，而我们也将照例在会议前几天发布《世界经济展望》。今天，我将谈一谈若干基本趋势。

For advanced economies, the outlook has improved with stronger manufacturing activity. This upswing is broad-based across countries – including in Europe – although some countries here still face high debt and weaknesses in some banks. 

发达经济体前景向好，原因在于制造业活动增强。经济前景的改善在各国（包括欧洲国家）不乏广泛的基础，尽管一些国家仍然面临债务高企和部分银行薄弱的问题。

The prospects for emerging and developing economies also bode well for global growth. These countries have driven the global recovery in recent years, and they will continue to contribute more than three-quarters of global GDP growth in 2017. 

新兴和发展中经济体的前景也有利于全球增长。这些国家最近几年推动了全球复苏，2017年它们将继续占全球GDP增长的四分之三以上。

Meanwhile, higher commodity prices have brought relief to many low-income countries. However, these economies still face difficult challenges, including revenue levels that are projected to stay well below the boom years. 

同时，大宗商品价格的上涨缓解了许多低收入国家的困难状况。然而，这些经济体仍旧面临着诸多严峻挑战，比如财政收入预计将远远低于经济快速增长年份的水平。

Putting all this together, we see a global economy that has a spring in its step – benefiting from sound policy choices in many countries in recent years. 

综合上述各方面因素可以看出，全球经济增长的脚步充满活力，这得益于许多国家近年来实施的稳健政策。

Risks

风险

At the same time, there are clear downside risks: political uncertainty, including in Europe; the sword of protectionism hanging over global trade; and tighter global financial conditions that could trigger disruptive capital outflows from emerging and developing economies.

然而，目前显然也存在着一些下行风险：政治上的不确定性，包括在欧洲；全球贸易受到保护主义威胁；以及全球金融环境趋紧，这可能会导致新兴和发展中经济体出现破坏性的资本外流。

And underneath those short-term issues lies a weak productivity trend that continues to be a severe drag on strong and inclusive growth – largely because of population aging, the slowdown in trade, and weak private investment since the 2008 financial crisis. 

这些短期问题的根源在于生产率增长疲软，这一趋势继续对强有力的包容性增长造成严重阻碍——很大程度上是因为自2008年金融危机以来出现的人口老龄化、 贸易增长放缓以及私人投资疲弱等问题。

We estimate that, if productivity growth had followed its pre-2008 crisis trend, overall GDP in advanced economies would be about 5 percent higher today. That would be the equivalent of adding a country with an output larger than Germany to the global economy. 

我们估计，如果生产率按照2008年危机前的趋势增长，那么发达经济体的总体GDP将比目前的水平大约高出5%。相当于全球经济中又增加了一个产出大于德国的国家。

Policies

政策

This suggests that there is no room for complacency when it comes to economic policies.

这表明，就经济政策而言，我们没有理由沾沾自喜。

We need to build on the policies that have delivered so much for the world. And at the same time, we must avoid policy missteps – or as I have described them, “self-inflicted wounds.” 

我们需要利用那些已经对世界经济发挥了重大作用的各项政策。与此同时，我们必须避免种种政策失误，也就是我所说的那些“自讨苦吃”的行为。

How do we do this? I see three dimensions of economic policies: 

我们该怎么做？我认为应当从经济政策的三个方面入手：

Supporting growth, with an emphasis on productivity; 

支持增长，强调生产率；

Sharing the benefits more equitably; and 

更加公平地分享收益；

Cooperating across borders through a multilateral framework that has served the world well. 

通过已经有效服务于世界的多边框架，开展跨境合作。

1. Supporting Growth

一、支持增长

The first dimension is to maintain the current growth momentum. This requires what we at the Fund have called a “three-pronged strategy” – the right mix of fiscal, monetary, and structural measures tailored to individual country needs.

第一个方面是维持当前的增长势头。这就要求采取基金组织所谓的“三管齐下的策略”——针对各国的具体需要，恰当组合各项财政、货币和结构性措施。

For example, in a number of economies, demand is still weak and inflation is not yet durably back to target. This calls for continued monetary support and a greater emphasis on growth-friendly fiscal policies – revamping tax and benefit systems to improve incentives and boosting high-quality infrastructure investment in countries that have room in their budgets. 

例如，在一些经济体，需求依然疲软，通胀也未稳定回到目标水平。这就需要继续提供货币支持，并且更加重视有益于增长的财政政策——例如，改革税收和福利制度以强化激励，以及在有预算空间的国家扩大高质量的基础设施投资。

These measures should be combined with structural reforms to lift potential growth. Here in the euro area, a good example is lowering barriers to entry in retail and professional services. 

这些措施应当结合各项结构性改革以提升潜在增长率。比如，欧元区采取的一项有效做法是降低进入零售和专业服务领域的壁垒。

More fundamentally, policymakers need to reinvigorate productivity. Over the long term, this is the most important source of higher income and rising living standards. 

更为根本的是，政策制定者需要重振生产率。从长远来看，这是增加收入和提高生活水平提高的最重要渠道。

But what can governments do to boost productivity? 

但各国政府应该如何提高生产率？

They should start by fostering innovation. This includes investing more in education and infrastructure, and providing tax incentives for research and development. 

首先应当促进创新。例如，更多地投资于教育和基础设施，以及为研究和开发活动提供税收优惠。

Our analysis shows that, if advanced economies increased private R&D by 40 percent on average, they could increase their GDP by 5 percent in the long term. 

我们的分析显示，如果发达经济体的私人研发活动平均扩大40%，那么它们的GDP在长期内将增长5%。

And just as we need more innovation, we also need more trade. Why? Because trade promotes innovation-sharing and encourages firms to invest in new technologies and more efficient business practices. 

除了需要更多的创新，我们同样需要更多的贸易。为什么？因为贸易能促进创新的共享，并鼓励公司投资于新技术和更高效的商业行为。

For example, we estimate that China’s integration into the global trading system accounted for as much as 10 percent of the average overall productivity increase in advanced economies between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s. 

例如，我们估计，中国融入全球贸易体系对20世纪90年代中期至21世纪最初十年中期发达经济体平均总体生产率增长的贡献高达10%。

Enormous gains like that translate over time into higher living standards. Today, billions of people enjoy longer, healthier, and more prosperous lives, largely because of our ability to harness the power of trade and productivity. 

随着时间的推移，此类巨大收益转化成了更高的生活水平。今天，之所以数十亿人能拥有更长的寿命并过上更健康、更富足的生活，主要是因为我们能够利用贸易和生产率的力量。

But we also know, of course, that technology and trade come with negative side-effects – from job losses in shrinking sectors to social challenges in those communities and regions that have been left behind by structural change. 

我们当然也知道，技术和贸易会产生消极的副作用——例如，萎缩行业内的失业，结构性改革给一些群体和地区带来的社会挑战，等等。

2. Making Growth More Equitable

二、提高经济增长的公平性

That brings me to the second policy dimension – inclusive growth.

接下来我谈谈政策的第二个方面——包容性增长。

To put it simply, when the benefits of growth are shared more broadly, growth is stronger, more durable, and more resilient. 

简而言之，如果增长的惠益得到更广泛的分享，那么增长就会更有力、更持久，更有韧性。

You may ask: “So, if we know this, why have countries not undertaken to share economic benefits more widely? Why has inequality grown in so many countries in recent years?” 

你可能会问：“如果我们都明白这一点，为什么各国不设法更广泛地分享经济惠益呢？最近几年为什么这么多国家不平等状况加剧？”

Think of technology. While it has brought enormous benefits to societies, we have found that technology has been the major factor behind the relative decline of lower- and middle-skilled workers’ incomes in recent years, with trade contributing to a much lesser extent. 

不妨想一想技术。虽然技术为社会带来了巨大的利益，但是我们仍发现技术已经成为近些年来中低技能工人收入相对下降的主要因素，而贸易在这方面的作用则小得多。

And there are concerns that automation will progressively jeopardize employment growth in emerging and developing economies as well. 

还有人担心，自动化会对新兴和发展中经济体的就业增长造成越来越大的阻碍。

When economic winds shift, we must find better ways of supporting workers. 

当经济风向转变时，我们必须找到更好的方法为工人提供支助。

There is no magic formula. But we do know that greater emphasis on retraining and vocational training, job search assistance, and relocation support can help those affected by labor market dislocations. 

现实中不存在神奇的公式。但是，我们清楚地知道，更加重视再培训和职业培训、求职援助和搬迁支助，能够帮助那些受劳动力市场错位影响的人。

The United States, for example, could focus more on well-designed assistance for job search and job matching, including through online tools. Emerging economies could also design technological solutions, such as advertising job openings through personalized text messages on mobile phones, just to give you one example. 

例如，美国应更加重视为求职和职位匹配提供设计完善的支持措施，包括采用各种在线工具。新兴经济体还可以设计技术解决方案，比如，通过个性化的手机文本信息发布职位空缺情况，等等。

Looking ahead, all governments need to do more to help citizens prepare for major technological advances. As the futurist Andrew McAfee put it: “The key to winning the race is not to compete against machines but to compete with machines.” 

展望未来，各国政府需要开展更多工作，帮助公民迎接重大技术进步。正如未来学家安德鲁·麦卡菲所言：“赢得比赛的关键不在于与机器一较高下，而在于借助机器一较高下。”

That requires a commitment to life-long learning – from early childhood education, to workplace training, to online courses for seniors. Singapore, for example, offers training grants to all adults throughout their working lives. 

这就要求人们致力于终身学习——从幼儿教育到工作培训，再到面向退休人员的在线课程。例如，新加坡向所有成年人提供贯穿整个职业生涯的培训补助金。

We at the IMF help policymakers to upgrade their expertise and practical skills through a growing number of regional training centers and through technology. Almost 17,000 people – from 185 countries – have successfully completed our online training courses. 

基金组织通过越来越多的地区培训中心和各种技术手段，帮助政策制定者升级专业知识和提高实用技能。185个国家的将近1.7万人顺利完成了我们开设的在线培训课程。

In countries with population aging, there is also a sense that today’s policies should not disadvantage future generations, who would be left to pay for the imprudent actions of today’s generation. That includes a damaged environment, dilapidated infrastructure, and high public debt. 

人口老龄化的国家也意识到了当下的政策不应该牺牲子孙后代的利益，不应该让子孙后代为今天这代人的鲁莽行为付出代价，包括继承受损的环境、破旧的基础设施以及庞大的公共债务。

Today, average public debt in advanced economies is at a post-war high – 108 percent of GDP. So we need strong fiscal policies frameworks and greater efforts to bring public debt back to a safe level, especially in aging societies.

如今，发达经济体的平均公共债务已经达到战后最高水平——相当于GDP的108%。因此，我们需要制定强有力的财政框架，并付出更大努力，将公共债务拉回安全水平，尤其是在老龄化社会中。

And again, the impact of aging societies, especially through pension systems and healthcare costs – is not just an advanced economy phenomenon. Many emerging economies also need to make their systems safe for the next generation. 

而老龄化社会的影响，尤其是通过养老金体系和医疗费用产生的影响，并不仅仅是发达经济体存在的现象。许多新兴经济体也需要为下一代人维持安全的体系。

My third point is also a simple one: In our hyperconnected world, national policies tend to have major spillovers across borders. We are all sitting figuratively in the same boat. Which is why we need to encourage countries to support strong international cooperation. 

我要说的第三点很简单：在这个高度互联的世界，国家政策往往会产生超越国界的重大溢出效应。我们好比坐在同一条船上。这就是为什么我们需要鼓励各国支持强有力的国际合作。

3. International Cooperation

三、国际合作

For more than 70 years, the world has responded to challenges through a system of rules, shared principles, and institutions, with the Bretton Woods system at its center. John Maynard Keynes, one of the IMF’s chief architects, called it “that bigger thing we are bringing to birth”. 

七十多年来，世界依靠以布雷顿森林体系为核心的一套规则、共同原则和制度体系应对了各种挑战。基金组织的一位总建筑师约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯将其称为“我们正在创造的更伟大的事”。

It is a prime example of the international cooperation that has underpinned a phenomenal rise in incomes and living standards around the world. 

这就是国际合作的典型范例，这种合作推动了世界各地人们收入和生活水平的显著提高。

More recently, we worked together to ensure that the Great Recession did not become another Great Depression. Cooperation through a multilateral framework has benefited every country.

不久前，我们齐心合力，避免了“大衰退”发展成为另一场“大萧条”。通过多边框架开展的合作已然惠及了每个国家。

Fostering more resilient growth therefore requires more international cooperation – not less.

所以说，要促进更具韧性的经济增长，就需要开展更多而不是更少的国际合作。

Cooperating to reduce excessive external imbalances, for example, is crucially important because unsustainable policies in one country can impact others. In this context, cooperation means working together to ensure that countries observe a level playing field, including by avoiding protectionist measures as well as distortive policies that give rise to competitive advantage. 

例如，通过合作减轻过度的外部失衡极为重要，因为一个国家实施的不可持续的政策会影响其他国家。在这方面，合作意味着共同努力，确保各国维护公平竞争的环境，包括避免采取保护主义措施和造成竞争优势的扭曲性政策。

Restricting trade would be a “self-inflicted wound” that disrupts supply chains, hurts global output, and inflates the prices of production materials and consumer goods. And low-income households are hurt the most as they consume the largest part of their incomes. 

限制贸易是“自讨苦吃”，它会中断供应链，影响全球产出，导致生产资料和消费品价格上涨。而低收入家庭受到的损害最为严重，因为他们的消费在收入中所占比例最高。

We also need to cooperate to ensure financial stability – including a stronger global financial safety net to help emerging and developing countries better cope with capital flow volatility in times of distress. 

我们还需要通过合作来确保金融稳定，包括建立一个更强有力的全球金融安全网，用以帮助新兴和发展中国家在遭遇困境时更好地应对资本流的波动。

Financial stability requires that we complete the reform of global financial regulations. These rules – especially on bank capital, liquidity, and leverage – have made the financial system safer – and have made taxpayers safer as well, since they are less likely to be on the hook for excessive risk-taking. 

为维持金融稳定，我们需要完成全球金融监管改革。这些规则，尤其是关于银行资本、流动性和杠杆的规则，已经加强了金融体系的安全性，同时也使纳税人更加安全，因为他们现在已不太可能为银行过度冒险行为付出代价。

And there is further work to be done in fighting money laundering and combat the financing of terrorism. More broadly, we are supporting reforms to improve governance and to fight corruption – including to combat tax evasion and avoidance – to help ensure that all pay their fair share. 

此外，还需要进一步开展反洗钱方面的工作，打击恐怖主义融资。更宽泛地说，我们将支持通过改革来加强治理和打击腐败，包括打击逃税和避税，从而保证所有人都付出他们应付的一份。

Last but not least, we need to work together to accelerate gains in living standards where needs are greatest. Helping low-income countries achieve the Sustainable Development Goals is not only a humanitarian question, but will also help billions of consumers to participate fully in the global economy. 

最后，同样重要的是，我们必须共同努力，帮助那些最迫切需要改善生活的地区加快提高生活水平。帮助低收入国家实现可持续发展目标不仅是一个人道主义问题，而且有助于数十亿消费者充分参与全球经济。

Standing together is essential to face global challenges such as refugee and humanitarian crises, natural disasters, and climate change. 

为了应对诸如难民和人道主义危机、自然灾害以及气候变化等全球挑战，我们必须团结一心、风雨同舟。

Role of the Fund

基金组织的作用

As you know, the IMF’s raison d’être is to foster such international cooperation. We continue to focus on customized support to our membership through policy advice, lending when needed, and capacity development. 

正如大家所知，基金组织之所以存在，就是为了促进此类国际合作。我们将继续侧重于通过政策建议、必要的贷款以及能力建设等方式为成员国提供量身定制的支持。

This is our “bread-and-butter” work, which we are continuously upgrading to keep it relevant and member-focused. 

这就是我们最基本的工作，我们将不断改进这一工作，以确保它始终切合实际并以成员国为重心。

At the same time, we are adapting to new macro-relevant areas to help our membership address excessive income inequality and other side-effects of 21st-century technology and trade. 

与此同时，我们正在做出调整以适应各种新的宏观领域，目的是帮助成员国消除过度的收入不均以及21世纪技术和贸易带来的其他不利影响。

Whether through increasing macro-financial analysis, emphasizing the role of gender policies for macroeconomic outcomes, or strengthening the global financial safety net – our objective is to maintain economic stability and help build a stronger global economy that works for all. 

无论是通过增加宏观金融分析、强调性别政策对宏观经济表现的作用，还是加强全球金融安全网，我们的目标始终是维护经济稳定并促进建立能造福于所有人的更强大的全球经济。

Conclusion

结语

Let me conclude by returning to architecture and the three principles proposed by the great Roman architect Vitruvius: 

最后，我想回到建筑的话题，以伟大的古罗马建筑师维特鲁威提出的三项原则结束今天的讲话：

Durability – it should stand up robustly and remain in good condition; 

耐久——它应当能稳固屹立，不易损毁；

Utility – it should be useful and function well for the people using it; and, 

有用——它应当有使用价值，正常运作；

Beauty – it should delight people and raise their spirits. 

美观——它应当能愉悦心情，振奋精神。

Let us be good architects. 

让我们都成为杰出的建筑师。

Together, let us build a more resilient and inclusive global economy. 

让我们携起手来，建立一个更具韧性和包容性的全球经济。

Thank you! 谢谢大家！