自信的特朗普总是能够令人瞠目结舌。一部反倾销法案令多方都感到担忧,甚至有人声称它可以引起萨拉热窝一样的巨震。究竟是什么样的反倾销法案呢?
US anti-dumping cases fuelled by Trump trade threats
特朗普时代美国反倾销诉讼活跃
Donald Trump’s campaign to shake up global trade has prompted claims that his protectionist promises are turning out to have more bark than bite. But that ignores one particular effect.
唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)撼动全球贸易的举动得到的评价是:事实证明,他的保护主义承诺雷声大雨点小。但这忽视了一个特别的影响。
Encouraged by the US president’s “America First” pronouncements and his vow to crack down on cheating by other countries, US-based companies as big as Boeing are filing anti-dumping and other trade cases aimed at blocking imports with a new gusto. They are also digging out dormant statutes to bring new cases as the administration does the same.
在特朗普提出的“美国优先”(America First)言论以及发誓打击其他国家作弊行为的鼓励下,包括像波音(Boeing)这样重量级的美国企业正在以新的热忱,提起旨在阻止进口的反倾销和其他贸易诉讼。它们还搬出几乎无人使用的规定提起新的诉讼,就像美国政府所做的那样。
One of the results, some fear, is that what in many cases has been a technocratic US process is becoming overtly politicized as an administration eager to look tough on trade seeks to score political points.
一些人担心,一个结果是,随着这届美国政府渴望通过在贸易问题上表现得强硬来获得政治加分,原本在很多情况下在美国走技术流程的东西,正变得过于政治化。
“Most US presidents have been unwilling to have these little trade actions bubble up to their level and to achieve political significance that they have to weigh in on,” says Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics. “That is out the door.”
“多数美国总统不愿让这些小的贸易举动摆到总统桌面上,不愿让这些举动在政治上重要到他们必须加以权衡的地步。”彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute of International Economics)高级研究员查德?鲍恩(Chad Bown)表示,“那些事情是进不了(总统办公室)大门的。”
Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross last month surprised some when he announced the imposition of tariffs on imports of Canadian softwood lumber as efforts to resolve a long-running dispute crumbled, and has threatened to do the same with Mexican sugar imports. But he has also weighed in on more obscure matters, promising to move “swiftly” with investigations into imports of products such as plywood and “carton closing staples” from China.
美国商务部长威尔伯?罗斯(Wilbur Ross)上月做出惊人之举,他宣布对加拿大软木材进口征收关税(因为解决一项长期纠纷的努力失败了),并威胁将对墨西哥糖进口采取同样的举措。但他还考虑了更多不起眼的问题,承诺将“快速”对来自中国的胶合板和“封箱钉”等产品的进口展开调查。
While Mr Trump has yet to deliver the trade war with China that many fear, the new openness to anti-dumping cases and others the US administration is lining up have trade experts worried.
尽管特朗普尚未如很多人担心的那样与中国开打贸易战,但最近对于反倾销案件以及美国政府正准备提起的其他案件,他的态度重新变得开放,这让贸易专家感到担忧。
Daniel Ikenson of the libertarian Cato Institute likens the focus on anti-dumping cases to a “great teething ring” for Mr Trump while his real trade fangs develop.
自由意志主义派研究机构——加图研究所(Cato Institute)的贸易研究主任丹.伊肯森(Dan Ikenson)将对反倾销案件的关注比作特朗普的一根“大磨牙棒”,而他真正的贸易“尖牙”还在形成之中。
Mr Ikenson is more worried about investigations the administration has launched into whether imports of steel and aluminum pose a threat to “national security”. Were either of those to lead to the US imposing broad duties on imports it “would be a humongous blunder”.
让伊肯森更为担忧的,是特朗普政府就钢铁和铝进口是否对“国家安全”构成威胁展开的调查。如果其中任何一种产品造成美国对进口产品征收广泛关税,那“将铸成大错”。
“That would be Sarajevo, 1914,” he says.
他表示:“其影响将相当于1914年的萨拉热窝事件。”
Beyond the retaliation it would provoke from China, the EU and beyond, the legal battles at the World Trade Organization — whose rules contain a never-tested national security exemption — would leave the system damaged, he says. Judges there would be unlikely to rule against the US. That would open the door to countries like China invoking the national security exemption for its semiconductor industry or others and India doing the same, Mr Ikenson argues.
他表示,除了此举将招致中国、欧盟以及其他国家的报复之外,在世界贸易组织(WTO)提起的法律诉讼将破坏这个体系。WTO规定包括一项从未受到考验的国家安全豁免条款。WTO的法官不太可能做出不利于美国的裁决。伊肯森认为,这将为中国等国为国内半导体行业或其他行业援引国家安全豁免条款打开大门,印度也可能效仿。
“It just opens the floodgate for countries to justify anything as a national security measure,” he says.
他说:“这就为各国打开了以国家安全名义证明任何措施合理性的闸门。”
The national security example has also served notice to companies and industry groups who have begun discussing the creation of new trade enforcement tools in visits to the White House and Congress.
这一援引国家安全的案例也向众企业和行业团体发出明确信号,它们在拜访白宫和国会时已开始讨论设立新的贸易执行手段。
Suniva, a bankrupt solar cell and panel maker based near Atlanta, last month filed a petition under a statute — section 201 of the trade act of 1974 — seeking broad duties on cheap imports from China and other countries that will, if it succeeds, eventually land on Mr Trump’s desk.
Suniva是亚特兰大附近一家破产的太阳能电池组件制造商,上月该公司基于1974年《贸易法案》第201条提交了一份请愿书,要求对来自中国及其他国家的廉价进口商品进行大范围征税,如果请愿成功,最终该提议将出现在特朗普的桌子上。
The president’s intervention, Suniva’s lawyers wrote, “is the only remedy available to prevent the final and permanent elimination of this American industry before the end of 2017”.
Suniva的律师写道,特朗普的干预“是可以阻止这一美国产业在2017年底前永久消失的唯一补救办法”。
But the petition has set up an awkward decision for the president.
但该请愿让特朗普面临一个尴尬决定。
Suniva since 2015 has been majority-owned by Shunfeng International Clean Energy, a Chinese company that has bought up distressed solar factories with a view to becoming the world’s largest solar company. Essentially, a Chinese-owned company is asking Mr Trump to erect trade barriers to China.
自2015年以来,Suniva的多数股权一直由顺风国际清洁能源有限公司(Shunfeng International Clean Energy)持有,这家中国企业收购了若干家不景气的太阳能工厂,以期成为全球最大的太阳能公司。实质上,这是一家由中国人所有的企业在要求特朗普对中国竖立贸易壁垒。
The new political environment is also seeing other global industry battles move into US trade courts.
在新的政治环境下,还有其他全球行业斗争正进入美国的贸易法庭。
The biggest so far was launched late last month when Boeing filed an anti-dumping case against Canada’s Bombardier, accusing it of selling mid-sized passenger jets to US airlines below cost in order to pre-empt sales of Boeing’s new 737.
迄今为止最大的一桩贸易纠纷发生在上月末,波音(Boeing)对加拿大庞巴迪(Bombardier)提起反倾销诉讼,指控庞巴迪以低于成本的价格将中型客机卖给美国航空公司,抢了波音新款737的生意。
But it is not the only one.
这并不是唯一的案例。
Globe Specialty Metals last week won a preliminary nod for its attempt to have duties levied against imports of silicon metal from Australia, Brazil, Kazakhstan and Norway. Such duties, the company argues, would help it reopen a plant in Alabama it closed last year and re-hire 100-200 employees.
Globe Specialty Metals试图促使美国对来自澳大利亚、巴西、哈萨克斯坦和挪威的进口金属硅征收关税,上周它的努力赢得初步胜利。该公司认为这一征税将有助于其重开去年在阿拉巴马州关闭的一间工厂,并重新雇佣100至200名员工。
However, Globe Specialty Metals is a subsidiary of Ferroglobe, a UK-based company — its fight is as much with US rivals like Dow Corning (which imports silicon from Brazil and opposes the duties) and Mississippi Silicon, a young competitor backed by a Brazilian producer that in 2015 opened the first new silicon metal plant in the US in decades.
然而,Globe Specialty Metals是英国企业Ferroglobe的子公司,该公司与美国竞争对手的斗争同样激烈,比如从巴西进口硅并反对美国对硅进口征税的道康宁(Dow Corning),以及由巴西生产商投资的年轻竞争者密西西比硅业(Mississippi Silicon)——该公司于2015年开设了美国数十年来第一家新的硅金属工厂。
“We are very pleased that [the Trump administration] have taken such an active stance,” says Joe Ragan, Globe’s chief financial officer. “Hopefully that will turn out to be something that would protect us.”
Globe Specialty Metals的首席财务官乔.拉根(Joe Ragan)表示:“我们很高兴(特朗普政府)采取了如此积极的立场。希望这将成为能保护我们的东西。”