By the close of 2015, China held US$53 billion of Venezuelan debt. However, US think tank Inter-American Dialogue suggests it could be as much as US$65 billion. Despite Venezuela’s deepening recession, China has continued to lend, with US$2.2 billion in November 2016 alone.
尽管规模较前两年有所降低，2016年中国继续对委内瑞拉进行着大规模借贷，当年11月中国向委内瑞拉提供了22亿美元贷款。到2015年底，中国向委内瑞拉的贷款总额已经达到530亿美元。泛美对话则认为这一金额高达650亿美元。
“Many thanks for all the support you have given Venezuela in 2014, 2015, and especially 2016. Our older sister China has not left Venezuela alone in moments of difficulty," said Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a televised speech.
委内瑞拉总统马杜罗在一次电视讲话中感谢了中国：“非常感谢贵国过去三年的支持，特别是2016年。我们的兄弟没有在危难时刻抛弃委内瑞拉。”
But the changing global economic environment means that China cannotcontinue lending to Latin American countries worry-free. Analysis by Inter-American Dialogue shows that in 2016, 92% of China’s loans to Latin America went to Ecuador, Venezuela and Brazil, nations which are all facing serious economic challenges according to the World Bank.
然而在全球经济环境正在发生深刻变化的当下，对中国而言，持续向拉美国家贷款并非没有隐忧。据泛美对话的统计，中国2016年对拉美贷款92%流入了厄瓜多尔、委内瑞拉和巴西。而按照世界银行的统计，这三个国家今年的经济走势都不好。
The Brazilian economy has been shrinking since 2011, while the economy in Venezuela also continues to deteriorate. In 2015, 15 years of sustained economic growth came to an end in Ecuador.
巴西2011年以后一直经济下滑，委内瑞拉经济更是持续恶化，而厄瓜多尔也在2015年结束了连续15年的经济增长。
Experts say the main challenge facing economic cooperation between China and Latin America is whether Chinese investment could better promote sustainable development that is less risky and more environmentally responsible.
专家指出，中拉经济合作面临着来自两个方向的挑战：拉丁美洲国家如何更好地利用中国投资实现可持续发展，以及中国政府和企业如何更好地做出投资决策。
穿越半个地球的石油贷款
Oil loans around the globe
Take Venezuela as an example. The country’s economic growth has all but ground to a halt leaving its credit rating intatters（破烂）. It is already unable to repay the US$19 billion in loans that it owes to China, according to Barclays Capital Inc
巴克莱. 以委内瑞拉为例，该国目前实业生产几近停滞，国家信用评级全球垫底，已经无法按期偿还约190亿美元来自中国的贷款。
Wu Guoping, a senior researcher at the Institute of Latin American Studies, part of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says that Venezuela’s economic difficulties are linked with the inherent limitations of its oil sector.
中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所资深研究员吴国平认为，委内瑞拉的经济困难与其石油生产的内在局限有关。
Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves but produces less than 20% of Saudi Arabia’s output because its oil is heavier and so more expensive to extract and refine. “It’s only profitable if the price of oil is at US$60 or higher,” says Wu. But that price hasn’t been seen since November 2014.
委内瑞拉石油储量世界第一，但当前产量还不及沙特阿拉伯的五分之一，这是由于其油质过重，开采和提炼的成本都较高。“委内瑞拉的石油每桶要卖到60美元，才可能盈利，”吴国平说。但全球石油价格自2014年11月跌破60美元大关，至今也未能恢复。
Venezuela repays its loans to China with oil to the equivalent value. Many oil-for-loans contracts were signed when the price of oil was high but now the country is under pressure to supply much larger quantities than earlier expected.
这对委内瑞拉以石油偿还外国贷款造成了额外负担，由于石油换贷款合同在油价高位时商定，油价下跌导致委国需出口比预期更多的石油才能偿还贷款。
According to Reuters, Venezuela started to fall behind with oil shipments to China and Russia in 2016, with the national oil company Petróleos de Venezuela failing to supply oil worth US$750 million that year.
据路透社报道，2016年委内瑞拉对华对俄的石油运输有所拖欠，其中，委国营石油公司PDVSA对中国和俄罗斯拖欠了价值共约7.5亿美元的的石油。
As well as missed shipments*** and refining difficulties (China had to build a new refinery specifically for the heavier Venezuelan oil), it has to be shipped halfway around the world to reach China. Taken together, Wu thinks this is too costly an option for China.
除了贷款坏账问题***和炼制难度（中国需要修建专门炼油厂提炼来自委内瑞拉的重质石油），委内瑞拉石油要飘洋过海穿越半个地球才能抵达中国。吴国平认为，这样中国使用委内瑞拉石油的成本就太高了。
从输血到造血
From exports to self-sufficiency
For Latin American countries, including Venezuela, the crucial question is how to use Chinese loans. “China can't be the one to trigger sustainability but if Latin America got its act together the Chinese could provide some real funding,” says Kevin Gallagher, a professor at Boston University who studies the region.
对拉丁美洲自身而言，怎么用好来自中国的贷款也至关重要。“中国的钱不会自动促成一个可持续的社会的建设，只有拉美自己做好打算，这些钱才会被引到对拉美真正有用的途径上。”波士顿大学拉美研究教授凯文•加拉格说。
Latin America is rich in natural resources but these are exported as raw materials rather than as processed products. Loans from Chinese banks are focused on energy, mining and infrastructure. 这是一块拥有丰富的资源，却总以资源形式出口的大陆。中方银行的贷款也主要投向了能源矿产和基建领域。
According to Gallagher, Latin American governments mainly use Chinese loans to build infrastructure between mines and oil fields to refineries and ports, a far cry from real economic integration or sustainable development.
加拉格表示，拉美国家现在拿到中国的钱，主要想的还是修建通往连接矿区、冶炼厂和港口的基础设施，与真正的经济一体化和可持续发展相去甚远。
In Gallagher’s new book, The China Triangle, he says that the situation in many Latin American nations has led to a trade imbalance where countries rely heavily on exports. Profits made from the export of natural resources are reinvested into the extractive sector rather than into sustainable economic and social development.
加拉格在他的新书《The China Triangle》中分析说，拉美很多国家因为资源优势导致了出口结构失衡，为了加强维持出口优势，出口收益又被用在资源相关领域的再投资，而能够支撑社会经济可持续发展的产业和领域没有得到应有的扶持。
Domestic politics is a major factor in shaping the investment choices of Latin American governments. In Venezuela the “Leftist” governing party used the profits from the oil sector to fund populist welfare policies.
吴国平则认为，拉美国家的国内政治格局也是一大因素。以委内瑞拉为例，由于石油此前带来的高收益，“左翼”执政党为了留住选民实施了具有民粹主义倾向的高福利政策。
The Hugo Chavez administration offered free education and healthcare and issued occasional payments to the poor, while infrastructure that has a less visible impact on public welfare such as expressways was neglected.
查韦斯政府实行了全民免费教育和免费医保，并且不定期向穷人发放补贴。但如高速公路等看上去并不直接增加民众福利的社会基础设施建设，大多未能在经济增长的高峰期内得到改善。
Wu thinks that China’s economic transition is changing the structure of its domestic imports. For Latin America this is both an opportunity to improve its industries and a challenge.
另外，他还认为中国经济转型导致其国内需求结构变化，这也意味着对华出口国的出口结构发生变化。对拉美而言，这是产业升级的机遇也是发展的挑战。
Gallagher also told china dialogue that if China’s economic transition goes smoothly, China will need fewer commodities from Latin America.
加拉格也告诉中外对话，中国若转型顺利，可能就不再需要拉美现在能提供的大宗商品。
In 2013, 9% of exports from Latin America and the Caribbean went to China, including 15% of the region’s exports from agriculture and the extractive industries.
截至2013年，拉美和加勒比海地区对华出口额已占到其总出口额的9%，其中农业和采掘业达到行业出口总额的15%。
The bulk of the money flowing from China to Latin America is in the form ofpolicy loans rather than direct investment. China has lent over US$140 billion to Latin America since 2005 and is the region's biggest creditor.
目前中国流向拉美的资金，政策性贷款远大于直接投资。自2005年以来，中国对拉美的贷款已经超过1400亿美元，是拉美最大的债主。
But China accounts for less than 10% of direct investment in Latin America, and 90% of that goes to two off-shore financial centres, the Cayman Islands and the British Virgin Island. 但若论直接投资，目前中国每年直接投资还不足拉美接收的总投资的十分之一，其中大约90%又流向了开曼群岛和英属维尔京群岛这两个离岸金融中心。
Despite the small quantities of direct investment, a failure to adequatelyresearch local regulations has still caused problems for Chinese investors.
尽管投资规模不大，但功课做不到家还是可能给中国投资者带来麻烦。
For example, Chinamax, a Ministry of Commerce agency promoting Chinese investment in the Middle East, invested in Dragon Mart Cancun, a retail and residential development in Mexico. But the project was haltd just before completion due to the felling of protected trees.
例如，商务部下属的中国中东贸易促进中心（Chinamax）与墨西哥合作投资的龙城商贸集散中心，在接近完成时因砍伐了受保护的树木而被叫停。
Enrique Dussel Peters, a professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, has said that Chinese firms, whether state-owned or private, do not have an adequate understanding of the region, and that in the Dragon Mart project the Chinese firm’s local partner had failed to explain Mexican laws and systems.
墨西哥国立自治大学教授恩里克•杜塞尔•彼得斯告诉媒体，中国不论国营还是私营公司对墨西哥都不够了解，在龙城项目中，中方的墨西哥同行也没有向他们详细解释墨西哥的法律和制度，最终造成项目因为未达到环保标准而停止。
Li Zhiguo, a lawyer specialising in overseas investment, told china dialogue that Chinese state-owned firms are too fixated on obtaining raw materials rather than understanding local legal environments, and that they lack a mature “corporate culture.” Any of these factors can cause an investment to fail.
专门从事海外投资方向业务的李治国律师也曾告诉中外对话，中国企业获取资源的目的性太强，又对当地法律制度认知不够，没有成熟的“商业文化”，这些都是可能导致其投资失败的原因。
Wu Guoping thinks there are at least two factors that cause Chinese firmsreputational damage when investing abroad.
吴国平认为至少有两个因素容易造成中国企业在投资国引起的争议，以及在国际媒体中的相对负面的形象。
First, Chinese companies mainly invest in resources and mining, where there is a higher risk of environmental impacts.
第一，中国企业主投的领域主要集中在资源矿产类项目上，容易对环境产生一定的影响。
Second, investments are mostly undertaken by large state-owned enterprises. Government support means they struggle to be competitive in the market.
第二，资源型投资主要是由大型国有企业承担，并且主要投向国家主导型的经济体，难以完全适应市场竞争的游戏规则。
Wu thinks Chinese firms need to address this competitive weakness and give greater consideration to the rate of return on project investments, particularly when investing in infrastructure in Latin America.
吴国平建议中国企业应该在市场竞争中不断提高其竞争力，对项目投资回报率如何、通过什么方式收回成本，多做功课。尤其是在拉美国家的基础设施投资项目中.
Wu says that as China’s overseas investments expand, the competitiveness of Chinese firms in Latin American markets will increase. This will improve the reputation of Chinese firms as informed financial market players and help to avoid unnecessary investment risks.
吴国平认为，随着中国海外投资规模的扩大，越来越多的民营企业也开始拓展海外业务，这些企业的涌入有利于提高和完善中国企业在拉美的市场竞争力，逐渐建立起一个相对平衡的市场对话机制，让中国企业赢得市场尊重，也可以通过市场规则和次序规避不必要的投资风险。
