Anjana Ahuja
Why your new year resolutions are not working
不要再次辜负你的新年愿望
Tradition dictates that each new year is an opportunity for self-improvement. Perhaps you have designated 2017 as the annus mirabilis in which you will finally become thinner, fitter or richer. In which case, you are likely to end the year with much the same midriff, vigour and bank balance as you had in 2016.老规矩，每逢新年都是一次自我完善的机会。也许你已指定2017年为“奇迹年”，在这划时代的一年里，你终于要变得更瘦、更健康、更有钱。如果你确实是这么规划的，那么到今年年底时，你的身材、体魄和银行存款很可能还跟2016年基本一样。
New year’s resolutions are not to be undertaken lightly — and certainly should not be popped out on December 31 with the same abandon as champagne corks. That is because they are about behaviour change, which is a difficult feat to pull off at any time of the year.新年决心是不能轻易下的，肯定不能在12月31日像香槟瓶塞一样，“砰”地一声冒出来。因为它关系到改变行为方式，无论在一年中的任何时候，这都是一件难以实现的壮举。
It is hard to pluck out a reliable figure about the proportion of people who stick to their good intentions, but one survey of more than 2,000 people found that 56 per cent do not.关于有多少人能坚持自己的美好愿望，很难找出一个可信数据，不过一项对2000多人的调查发现56%的人都做不到。
This should not be surprising. We have all had ample opportunity over the past 12 months to reflect on our shortcomings, with few of us managing to achieve desirable change earlier. Why this inertia should suddenly dissolve in January has always puzzled me, which is why my new year’s resolution is usually not to make any.这没什么好惊讶的。我们每个人在过去12个月都有大把机会去反省自己的缺点，但鲜少有人能努力提前完成理想转变。为什么这种懒惰会在1月份突然消失？我总是对此感到困惑，这就是为什么我通常不制定任何新年计划。
It is not that my life does not require betterment — but, to a certain degree, I lack willpower. It is this precious commodity that is seen as key to whether the resolutions made on January 1 are adhered to.倒不是说我的生活不需要改善，不过就某种程度而言，我缺乏意志力。人们认为这一可贵的品质正是新年计划能否坚持的关键。
Permanently overcoming my sweet tooth would be a resolution doomed to failure. Instead, I try to occasionally eschew a biscuit with my morning coffee. From such modest ambitions are minor triumphs fashioned.彻底戒掉我对甜食的嗜好，这一目标注定失败。取而代之，我试着早上喝咖啡时偶尔戒一块饼干。通过此类适度目标，达成一些小小的改变。
Psychologists have long thought willpower was a finite resource that should be expended judiciously, on life’s most important challenges. Newer studies, however, are less confident about this assertion, implying that we may possess the capacity to be strong-willed in all aspects of life, from diet and health through to jobs and relationships.心理学家长期以来一直认为意志力是一种有限的资源，应该审慎地用在人生中最重要的挑战上。但最新研究对这一论断没那么确信，这意味着我们或许可以在生活的各个方面都具有坚强的意志力，从饮食和健康，到工作和人际关系。
Willpower, or self-discipline, is also often likened to a muscle — the debate is really whether the muscle is strengthened, or fatigued, by regular use.意志力（或自律）还常常被比作肌肉，问题是经常使用是强化了肌肉，还是造成肌肉疲劳。
The idea that willpower is a capacity with limits originates in classic studies that give participants two successive challenges, both of which require willpower, for example resisting delicious foods. Very generally, people seem to struggle more on the second task — an observation that has been traditionally explained away by the first task draining the willpower tank.意志力是一种有限的能力，这种观点起源于古典研究，这些研究给参与者接连两个挑战，二者都需要意志力，比如抵制美食。一般来说人们似乎在第二个任务上更挣扎，而该现象的传统解释是：第一个任务用光了意志力储槽。
What the scientists say
科学家们的说法
In 2015, Dr Evan Carter from the University of Miami challenged this wisdom by narrowing his meta-analysis down to only those studies using well-established willpower tasks, and also trawling the literature for unpublished studies. (This gets around the phenomenon of publication bias, in which novel or positive results find their way into print but null or negative results, which are just as enlightening, are buried.)
2015年，迈阿密大学(University of Miami)的埃文•卡特博士(Dr Evan Carter)挑战了这一观点，他将元分析范围缩窄到那些只使用获得广泛认可的意志力任务的研究上，他还搜罗那些未发表的研究文献。如此一来，他避开了发表偏倚(publication bias)现象，即新颖的或积极的结果会得到发表，而平淡、消极、但同样有启发作用的结果却遭到埋没。
Dr Carter’s analysis, which also hints at the possibility that self-control gets better with practice, puts him at odds with Roy Baumeister, perhaps currently the best-known psychologist in the willpower field. Professor Baumeister, at Florida State University, believes self-control diminishes as blood glucose levels drop and the brain runs low on energy.卡特博士的研究暗示通过练习可能会实现更好的自我控制，这一观点让他与罗伊•鲍迈斯特(Roy Baumeister)意见不一。鲍迈斯特是佛罗里达州立大学(Florida State University)教授，可能是当前意志力研究领域最著名的心理学家，他认为随着血糖水平下降，大脑活力不足，自我控制力也会减弱。
Even if the science of willpower seems opaque, psychology can still offer insights into how to help those January resolutions stick. John Norcross, professor of psychology at Scranton University, Pennsylvania, and the author of Changeology, contends that there are five stages to behaviour change: precontemplation, contemplation, preparation, action and maintenance.即使有关意志力的科学似乎很难懂，心理学依然能够就如何坚持新年计划提供启发。《改变学》(Changeology)一书的作者、宾夕法尼亚州斯克兰顿大学(Scranton University)心理学教授约翰•诺克罗斯(John Norcross)认为，行为改变有5个阶段：前期思考、沉思、准备、行动和保持。
What works?
什么能够奏效？
I asked Professor Norcross for his three top tips to Financial Times readers embarking on resolutions. His first recommendation is to track progress, on the basis that behaviours that are measured are more likely to improve, via reminders and rewards.
我向诺克罗斯教授询问，对于想要着手实现新年计划的英国《金融时报》读者，他给出的最重要的3条建议是什么。他的第一个建议是追踪进度，其依据是，通过提醒和奖励等手段，得到衡量的行为更有可能改善。
Second, he says, adapt your environment. My interpretation: if you want to rein in spending, don’t go to a casino. After all, cues are all around us, prompting us subconsciously to behave in certain ways. As Prof Norcross puts it: “Trigger healthy behaviours by hanging with prudent people, places and things.” For me, it means not having biscuits in the house.他说，第二个建议是改变你的环境。我的解读是：如果你想要控制支出，不要去赌场。毕竟，我们被暗示包围着，这些暗示会促使我们下意识地做出某些行为。就如诺克罗斯教授说的：“通过和审慎的人交往，待在审慎的地方，接触审慎的事物，来激发健康的行为。”对我而言，这意味着不要在家里放饼干。
His final tip? Expect to mess up. It may even help: “One of our research studies showed that 71 per cent of successful resolvers said their first slip had actually strengthened their efforts — they learnt from the mistake and recommitted.”他给出的最后一条提示是什么？预期自己会搞砸。这甚至有帮助：“我们的一项研究表明，在成功实现计划的人中，71%的人表示，他们的第一次失败实际上加强了他们的努力——他们从错误中学习，并且再次投入努力。”
Psychologists haven’t completely cornered the market: economists can offer wisdom on behavioural change too. One of my favourite strategies is embodied by the website www.stickk.com. It was co-founded by Yale academics Dean Karlan and Ian Ayres, among others, and relies on two brutal behavioural truths: people do not like losing money (loss aversion), and they are likely to behave better when others are looking.心理学家并没有完全垄断这个市场：经济学家也可以为行为改变提供一些看法。网站www.stickk.com总结了我最喜欢的策略之一。这个网站由耶鲁(Yale)学者迪安•卡兰(Dean Karlan)和伊恩•艾尔斯(Ian Ayres)等人联合创立，依赖两条冷酷的行为真理：人们不喜欢损失钱财（损失厌恶）；当其他人在看着的时候，他们可能会表现得更好。
A person signing up to a “commitment contract” — such as keeping weight below a certain threshold — must agree to have it policed by a referee, and to forfeit a financial penalty if he or she falters. Sending forfeited cash to an “undeserving” recipient — for example, an overweight Trump supporter pledging money to the Clinton Foundation if the pounds don’t budge — is a particularly effective insurance policy against misdemeanour. The website claims to triple the chances of people fulfilling their promises.签署“承诺合约”（比如保持体重低于某一特定数值）的人必须同意，由一名裁判员进行监督，如果他或她有所动摇，就会被没收一笔罚金。把没收的罚金给“不值得的”接受者，是对抗行为不当的尤为有效的保障措施，比如，一个超重的特朗普支持者承诺，如果不能减重，就得把钱捐给克林顿基金会(Clinton Foundation)。该网站声称能让人们实现诺言的几率提高两倍。
If I really wanted to conquer the biscuit blight, I would probably try something along those lines: maybe a fiver for every furtive Hob Nob, with the proceeds going to the Kardashians. But I have got a leftover Christmas assortment to get through first.如果我真的想要克服我对饼干的嗜好，我很可能会根据这些原则尝试一下：比如每偷吃一块Hob Nobs饼干就罚款5英镑，这些钱将会流向卡戴珊(Kardashian)家族。但首先，先让我把圣诞节没吃完的各色食物吃掉吧。
