美国风险投资智库凯西研究(Casey Research) 创始人道格-凯西(Doug Casey)，继成功预言特朗普赢得2016年总统大选后，再次通过点评和分析特朗普迄今为止的总统表现，并对2020年大选前的美国政局作出较悲观的预测和展望。

Q: 访谈者

A: 受访者，道格-凯西 (Doug Casey)，美国著名风险投资智库凯西研究 (Casey Research) 创始人、作家、风险投资人

Q1: Doug, what do you think of Trump's presidency so far? What's he done well? 道格，您如何评价特朗普当选总统后迄今为止的表现？他在哪些方面值得称道？

A1: Let me start by saying that I’m very pleased that Trump was elected because, first and foremost, he’s not Hillary.

首先，我觉得特朗普能在总统选举中胜出，这件事就令我十分高兴。因为，他跟希拉里完全是两路人。

In addition, he’s never been in political office. So he lacks some of the vices common to professional politicians.

此外，他毫无从政经验，这也使得他并未沾染上那些政客们常有的恶习。

Even better, all members of the Deep State reflexively hate him. That’s a good thing, because there’s some truth to the meme “the enemy of my enemy just might be my friend.”

进而来讲，所有的“深暗势力”（Deep State）都对他恨得咬牙切齿。这件事也不一定是坏事，所谓“敌人的敌人就是朋友”这句谚语还是有几分道理的。

I also like some of the things Trump’s done since he’s been in office— besides driving liberals and Deep Staters insane. He’s done some deregulating— not nearly enough, but he’s moved in the right direction.

对特朗普上台后的一系列举措，我个人还是比较欣赏的。因为，他不仅把那些 “(假)自由派” 跟 “深暗势力” 都逼得抓狂，也还在不断实施那些旨在减少政府监管的政策。虽然这些举措或许还不够，可他的确已经走在了正道上。

Of course, he did this not because he understands Austrian economics, but simply because he’s a businessman. He has some personal experience with the destructiveness of regulations.

当然，他这么做并非因为其对 “奥地利经济学派” (Austrian economics) 有着深刻理解，而与他商人本性有关。作为商人，他对政府监管过度而带来的种种麻烦有着不少切身体会。

Of course, he hasn’t done nearly enough yet. He’s just mowing the grass and trimming the hedges. He should be pulling these things out by their roots and sowing Agent Orange where they grew.

当然，特朗普目前做的还远远不够。他只是把那些他认为繁文缛节和不合理的政策撇到一边，就好比他只在除去草坪上的杂草、修剪篱笆上的树篱，而不是把这些杂草和树篱连根拔起，并在它们生长的地方撒上“橙剂”（译者注：Agent Orange，一种已被禁用的剧毒化学物质，美军曾在越南战争中使用过）。

The same goes for taxes. His tax cut was helpful, but not drastic. And there hasn’t been a cut in spending. In fact he’s significantly increasing spending. So the tax cut is mainly cosmetic.

税收政策也是如此。特朗普的减税政策是有用的，但并不彻底。此外，他并未减少政府开支，实际上反而在不断增加政府支出（译者注：比如加大军费开支，筹划建立“太空部队”等）。因此，所谓的“减税”只是个表面现象。

Q2: And where has he fallen short or failed? 特朗普有哪些地方您认为做得不尽人意？

A2: A number of ways, starting with running a trillion-dollar deficit. Where does he think that money’s going to come from? The Russians and the Chinese aren’t buying US debt anymore. Foreigners are looking to offload US paper.

当然，特朗普做的不够好的地方还有很多。首先，就是美国政府的财政赤字现已达数十万亿美元。他认为从哪里去筹措美元？如今，俄罗斯和中国已不再购买美国国债，很多外国投资也正在计划找时机抛售手中持有的美债。

Americans aren’t buying much, either. The only real alternative is to sell it to the Federal Reserve. Which is a real problem when the Federal Reserve is not only trying to deleverage, but has to refinance hundreds of billions of short-term paper coming due.

同样，美国的内需也不是很强劲。唯一一个真正有效的替代方法则是向美联储 (Federal Reserve) 借钱 “续命”。这样的话，就会使美联储在试图“降杠杆” (deleverage) 的同时，也会为那些即将到期的数千亿美元短期债券寻求“再融资” (refinance)。

Recall that almost all the $20 trillion of Treasury debt is very short term. Interest rates are going to rise, a lot. And so will the interest portion of the government deficit. Interest payments alone will be a trillion a year by the end of Trump’s second term—assuming he gets one.

回过头想想，因为价值20万亿美元的国债都是短期的，这也使得借贷利率大幅被提高，从而导致美国政府要为这些财政赤字支付更多利息。这样的话，假设特朗普成功连任，那么在他第二个任期结束时 (2025年初)，美国政府每年就要为财政赤字支付近万亿美元的利息。

Trump also— like all red-blooded Americans— loves the military. So, he’s adding to the already bloated military budget. It’s ridiculous, dangerous, and provocative. The United States already spends more than the next 10 or 12 biggest nations in the world put together.

其次，与那些热血沸腾的美国人一样，特朗普也十分热衷军事。因此，他还在源源不断地提升原已臃肿不堪的军费预算。对外界而言，这非常荒谬、危险，且具有挑衅意味。美国军费开支甚至超过了在世界上那些军费预算排名靠前的国家的总和，即使这些国家的军费预算仍排在世界前10或前12名。

And most of that money is wasted and misallocated. It’s being spent on dinosaur technologies. What he’s doing there is very foolish. It’s accelerating the looming bankruptcy of the Government. And of course the Government will drag the country down with it.

大部分的军费不是被浪费就是被不合理地分配，比如拿军费去研究那些所谓“屠龙术” (dinosaur technologies)。在军费问题上，特朗普表现太过愚蠢，这也使得美国政府在破产的道路上加速前进。最终，美国政府的破产会拖累这个国家。

He’s foolishly antagonizing the Russians by placing troops in the Baltics. He’s doing the same with China by sending ships to the South China Sea, which is their equivalent of the Gulf of Mexico.

此外，他还愚蠢地把俄罗斯当成敌人，并在波罗的海地区部署军队。他对中国也在做同样的事情，即向中国南海调派舰队，此举无异于他国派遣舰队到墨西哥湾。

But my biggest problem with Trump is that he has no philosophical core. He’s not by any means a libertarian. He’s a pragmatist and an authoritarian. He’ll do whatever seems like a good idea at the time.

但是，我对特朗普最大的担忧在于他并没有坚定的价值观。他不是 “自由意志主义” (libertarianism) 的拥趸，他只是奉行 “实用主义” 和 “威权主义”。因此，他会在恰好的时间做任何看上去很完美的事。

He’s got no background in or understanding of economics or history. I think it’s true that, as his critics say, he hasn’t read a book in 50 years. He goes strictly on gut instinct.

此外，他对于经济和历史知之甚少。对于特朗普的批评者的指责，我也非常赞同，即他已经有50年的时间没接受过理论培训了，他现在做事全凭直觉。

On the bright side, some of his instincts are pretty good. For instance, he can see that the culture of the US has changed radically over the last 30 years. And if mass immigration from backward countries continues this place will soon be unrecognizable.

当然，从好的方面来看，他的一些直觉也是值得称道的。例如，他明确指出美国文化在过去三十年里发生了巨大变化；若任由那些来自“后发国家” (backward countries) 且数量巨大的移民继续涌入美国，美国会很快变得更加面目全非。

These people— unlike immigrants up to the 1950s— have values that are actually antithetical to those that made America what it is.

如今的移民，其奉行的价值观与“美国精神”完全对立，这点与那些上世纪五十年代的移民是完全不同的。

Q3: Yeah, Trump doesn't follow any sort of playbook. So, what do you think about what he's accomplished with North Korea and Russia? 的确，特朗普做事完全没有章法。那么，您认为他在与朝鲜和俄罗斯领导人的会面中获得了什么成就？

A3: I think he needs to be complimented for reaching out to baby Kim and establishing a personal relationship with him. It’s very interesting, and highly disturbing, that the Deep State called this outreach treasonous and dangerous. It shows how insane these Beltway creatures have become.

我觉得，对与金正恩主动建立私交关系这件事，特朗普是需要被肯定的。这件事虽有趣，但也使人惴惴不安。特朗普与金正恩的会面，在 “深暗势力” 看来是堪比叛国，又有着极大的危险性。这点也表现出，特朗普令这些久居华盛顿的王公贵族们十分抓狂。

I mean it’s a good idea for him to be personally friendly with the head of an antagonistic power. It reduces the chance of war. That’s absolutely true for what he’s doing with Putin as well. Trump is to be congratulated for disregarding the media, the talking heads, academics, and State Department bureaucrats.

与对立国家的领导人建立友谊，我认为特朗普这事是做对了。因为这样能降低爆发战争的可能性，而同样的道理也适用于特朗普与普京会面这件事。因此，我也十分赞同特朗普与这两人的会面，而这两次会面也是建立在特朗普无视媒体、意见领袖、学者以及国务院官僚们阻挠的基础上。

Horrible people, captured by bad ideas. I’ve read things that these morons have written. They’re saying he gave away the store. They’re crazy. They’re proof there actually is a clinical condition called TDS, Trump Derangement Syndrome.

烂人往往会被条条框框所羁绊，根本提供不出什么有价值的建议。我也读过这些白痴写的东西，他们认为特朗普对朝鲜和俄罗斯的让步太多了。这些人才是真的疯了，他们的临床症状应被称为 “特朗普发狂综合征” (TDS)。

For one thing Russia is a complete non-threat. It’s a gas station with an attached gun store in the middle of a wheat field. Their economy is smaller than Florida’s.

还有一点需要注意，我认为俄罗斯是个完全构不成威胁的国家。俄罗斯就好比一个在广袤麦田中的加油站，里面还有一个枪支专卖店。俄罗斯的经济规模甚至远不如佛罗里达一个州。

They’re not a threat to anybody— alcoholism is rampant, the Russian population is in collapse, and they’re being undermined by massive Mohammedan migration from the Stans to Russia’s south. Sure, they have nuclear weapons. So, it’s a good idea to be friendly with the Russians, if only because of that.

此外，因为 “酗酒文化”、人口总数锐减以及从中亚来的穆斯林移民大量涌入等缘故，俄罗斯对任何国家都无法构成威胁。当然，俄罗斯拥有核武器。因此，还是要与俄罗斯为善吧，哪怕只因为这唯一的一个原因。

But Putin and Russia are not a danger in any way whatsoever. Including a few guys spending $100,000 on Facebook to influence the 2016 election.

但在任何方面，普京和俄罗斯都不会对外产生威胁，即使那些在社交网站 “脸书”(Facebook) 上花了10万美元从而试图去引导2016年美国总统选举走向的俄罗斯人（译者注：据“脸书”官方称，一家俄罗斯公司 “troll farm” 在2016年大选期间从该社交网站购买了10万美元的广告，但相比整个选举季各方总计超过10亿美元的政治宣传广告投入，是极其微不足道的）。

Q4: What about Trump's suggestion that other European countries should kick in more for defense spending? 您如何看待特朗普建议其它欧洲国家增加国防开支？

A4: It’s one of Trump’s real problems. The U.S. is already bankrupt and sinking deeper into debt. He shouldn’t be asking Europeans to raise defense spending. That’s asking for trouble. It’s going to make things worse for everybody.

这是也是特朗普真正的问题之一。美国政府已经破产，且在债务泥沼中越陷越深。他压根不应该要求欧洲国家在国防预算上增加开支。这是自找麻烦，这会使得所有情况变得更糟。

Why, with their history of constant wars, should Europe be encouraged to become more militaristic? Who are they trying to defend themselves against? Not the Russians. They aren’t going to attack. Nobody’s going to attack Europe, including the Chinese.

欧洲国家在历史上曾经战火接连不断，那么应该鼓励欧洲倾向 “军国主义” 吗？欧洲应该防范哪些国家的攻击？不是俄罗斯，他们不会攻击欧洲。其实，没有国家会主动攻击欧洲，包括中国。

These aren’t the days of the Roman Empire where warfare was a profitable venture, because after you won you got to enslave the men and steal the women, gold, cattle, and artwork, and take everything back to Rome.

如今，已不再是罗马帝国时代。在那个时候，战争可能是有利可图的。因为在赢得胜利后，你可以奴役男人甚至抢夺女人、黄金、牲畜以及艺术品，甚至还能把所有东西一股脑搬回罗马。

Economies don’t work that way anymore. Today, warfare is strictly a money-losing and capital-destroying enterprise. So, it’s foolish for Trump to ask them to raise defense spending. It’s counterproductive. It will only provoke the Russians and Chinese.

然而，在当今社会，经济运作方式跟那个时候已有天壤之别。在今天，严格意义上来说，战争是一个赔钱和毁灭资本的生意。因此，特朗普要求欧洲增加国防预算的行为是非常愚蠢且适得其反的。这样，反而只会激怒俄罗斯和中国。

Instead, we should be talking about disbanding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). It serves no useful purpose. It should have been disbanded 25 years ago. NATO is proof of how it’s almost impossible to get rid of a bureaucracy— no matter how worthless and dysfunctional.

相反，我们应讨论解散 “北大西洋公约组织” (北约，NATO)。这个本应在25年前 (苏联解体后) 就解散的组织，已毫无利用价值。即使 “北约” 是多么的无用和无效，这个组织的存在，只能证明官僚制度是根深蒂固的。

This is a huge mistake on his part. But my biggest worry with Trump is the economy. The US is long overdue for a very serious collapse. And the next crash will be much worse than what we had in 2008. And I’m afraid it will happen on his watch.

对于特朗普来说，这是一个巨大的错误。但是，我对于特朗普最大的忧虑仍在经济。照理说，美国早应经历一次非常严重的经济崩溃，却迟迟未发生。这样的话，即将到来的下一次危机的恶劣程度会远甚于2008年金融危机。我非常担心，这次经济崩溃会在特朗普任期内到来。

Q5: What could happen if the economy collapses while Trump's in office? 如果经济在特朗普任期内崩溃，会造成什么后果？

A5: It would play right into the hands of the Democratic Party, which has become nothing more than a cesspool, dominated by Progressives, and worse. They’ll put up a hard left candidate against him in two years. And that person is likely to win if the economy collapses.

这个结果正是民主党乐见其成的。在我眼中，现在的民主党是被 “(假)进步主义” 分子把持着，无异于一个污水池。在两年内，民主党一定会推出一个强硬的“白左”领导人来参加下一届总统选举。一旦经济崩溃，那么民主党肯定会赢得大选。

The average American will— incorrectly— see Trump as representing the free market. So they’ll vote for someone who’s anti free market. Someone who promises them lots of other people’s money. We might get a radical leftist. After all, we’ve seen Americans not only elect, but re-elect Obama. The American public is capable of almost anything.

在那样的时代背景下，普通美国人会错误的认为特朗普代表 “自由市场”，自由市场导致经济崩溃。这样的话，他们则会投票给一个反自由市场的候选人，而这个人也会许诺把别人的钱装入这些选民的口袋。我们很有可能选出激进的左派当选下任美国总统。毕竟，我们已经见证了奥巴马被选为总统，还成功连任。美国民众什么事都能干得出来。

America has bifurcated into the red counties and the blue counties. And the people who live in red counties hate people from blue counties, and vice versa. The country is even more divided than it was in the late 1960s and early 1970s. 

美国已分裂为 “红县” (传统上支持共和党) 和 “蓝县” (传统上支持民主党) 两个阵营，并且互怼互掐。与上世纪60年代末与70年代初相比，如今的美国更加分裂。

So, we’re up for a real political storm. It’s especially serious when you’ve got a guy like Trump in office who’s got a strong-man mentality. Trump— notwithstanding some of his good instincts— is capable of almost anything because he’s a statist and authoritarian at heart. He’s our version of Erdogan and Putin.

因此，我们需要为一场真正的政治风暴做好准备。尤其是当类似于特朗普这样的 “政治强人” 当总统时，情势将更为严峻。尽管特朗普的直觉还不错，但他几乎什么事情都敢做，因为他本质上是一个集权主义者和威权主义者。

It’s starting to look like the ’30s, which was replete with strongman leaders— Roosevelt, Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Franco… He’s trying to run the United States like a private company. So, it’s a dangerous situation… but it’s still better than if a Democrat was in office.

现在看起来更像是上世纪30年代，那时的世界充满了 “铁腕领袖”，罗斯福、希特勒、墨索里尼、斯大林、佛朗哥。特朗普更倾向于把美国当成一个私营企业来管理，这是非常危险的。但是，在我看来，即使这样，也比民主党执政来得好。

Q6: Doug, you predicted that Trump would win the election long before most people even thought he had a chance. Now, I'm not asking you predict if Trump will win a second term or not. But how do you think Trump might position himself for reelection? 在大部分人不看好特朗普能获选前，您就预测特朗普能赢得总统选举。现在，并不要您预测特朗普是否会连任，而是看看特朗普会在下次选举中如何给自己定位？

A6: He can’t do anything to make the anti-Trumpers like him. And he can apparently do no wrong with the people who like him. I just hope that he doesn’t stumble into a trade war. Or worse, a shooting war.

特朗普无法让任何的反对者变得喜欢他。因此，很明显，他能做的只是不做出任何辜负他支持者的事情。我希望他不要让美国陷入贸易战的漩涡，甚至比贸易战更糟，那就是陷入一场真正的战争。

来源 ：iCover

译者：辰阳、四海巡使