中国经济
Lex_China debt: long time coming
Lex专栏：中国的债务魔咒
The impending fall of China has been confidently predicted for at least two decades. Despite its apparent inevitability, however, 2016 was still not the year that China’s economy failed. January’s precipitous stock market tumble did not foretell the implosion of the broader system. Yet as the year draws to a close, the ever-expanding debt pile that has long concerned the China bears is showing real signs of stress.
至少20年了，有人一直自信地预测中国即将衰落。尽管这看上去不可避免，但2016年仍然不是中国经济走衰的那一年。1月份的股市暴跌并没有预示整个经济崩溃。不过，随着这一年接近尾声，看空中国者长期一直担心的中国日益庞大的债务问题，正显现出真正的紧张迹象。
Relatively speaking China’s debt burden is not incongruously large. At 255 per cent of GDP, according to the Bank for International Settlements, it is lower than the euro area at 271 per cent and Japan’s 394 per cent; the US comes in just below China. The rate of growth, however, has been remarkable — at the end of 2008 China’s debt was just 147 per cent of GDP. And China itself is worried. In May, official media highlighted the risk of a financial crisis stemming from high levels of corporate debt, which accounts for more than half of the outstanding credit. The International Monetary Fund registered its concern in June. So far, China has struggled to improve the situation; bankruptcies remain rare.
相对而言，中国债务负担并非大得离谱。根据国际清算银行(BIS)的数据，中国债务水平相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的255%，低于欧元区的271%和日本的394%，略高于美国。然而，中国债务增速非常惊人——在2008年末，中国债务仅为GDP的147%。中国自身对这个问题也很担心。5月份，官方媒体强调了高水平的企业债务（占未偿债务的一半以上）引发金融危机的风险。6月份，国际货币基金组织(IMF)提出了担忧。到目前为止，中国仍在努力改善这种状况；企业破产仍鲜有发生。
The most pressing concerns over debt stem from the household sector. Citizens spooked out of equity markets earlier this year were enticed into high yielding wealth management products, which reinvested cheap borrowings into high yielding debt to deliver returns. This worked well — until the government began to tighten liquidity. China’s recent clampdown on capital flight has had the side-effect of a liquidity squeeze; banks that had been lending to WMPs began to call in their debts. Meanwhile, November’s strong economic data and the US’s rate rise suggest that more tightening may be on the cards for China, too.
最紧迫的债务问题源自家庭部门。今年年初被吓得逃离股市的民众，受到高收益理财产品的吸引，纷纷购买，这些产品用低成本借入的资金重新投入高收益的债务中，以实现收益。原本一切良好——直到政府开始收紧流动性。中国最近打击资本外逃的举动带来了流动性收紧的副作用；向理财产品放贷的银行开始要求偿还债务。与此同时，11月份的强劲经济数据和美国加息意味着，中国可能也会进一步地收紧政策。
The situation is worrisome, but then it has been for some years. According to the BIS, China’s “credit gap” — a measure which shows trends in the expansion of household and corporate debt — is three times higher than the typical danger level. It crossed that threshold in 2009, the year in which vastly increased levels of infrastructure spending pulled China, and arguably the world, out of the financial crisis. China’s recent debt binge has also been geared towards keeping its economy ticking over. Unravelling it may ultimately make China’s economy healthier, but not without pain. If 2017 is the year the bears are finally right there will be little cause for cheer.
局面令人不安，但它已经存在多年。根据国际清算银行的数据，中国的“信贷缺口”（用来表明家庭和企业债务扩张趋势的衡量指标）比典型的危险水平高两倍。中国于2009年跨入危险门槛，那一年大幅增加的基础设施支出把中国、也可以说是把整个世界拉出了金融危机的深渊。中国最近的债务热潮也是为了保持经济平稳增长。解决债务问题可能最终会让中国经济更加健康，但其过程必然伴随着痛苦。即使2017年看空中国者终于押对了，也没有什么值得庆贺的。
Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
译者/何黎
