翻译天堂  2016-10-11

4 Big Economic Questions Now Facing the EU

For the first time ever, a member state of the European Union has decided to leave. Beyond Brexit’s dire implications for the British economy – a prolonged recession is a good bet, and London’s future as a global financial center is uncertain — four main questions puzzle investors and politicians around the world:有史以来第一次，欧盟的一个成员国决定退出。英国脱欧对英国经济无疑会产生惨重影响，比如说很可能出现的长期衰退，以及作为全球金融中心的伦敦的未卜前途。然而在此之外，有四个主要问题，正困扰着世界范围内的投资者与政治家们：

What will Europe look like? The first question involves both political and economic risks. The European Union is a fundamental ingredient of the institutional framework put in place after World War II. The Union has unquestionably been instrumental in a very long period of peace, stability, and growth grounded in economic interdependence, open markets, and international cooperation.

1.  欧洲前景将会如何？这第一个问题同时包含着政治与经济风险。欧盟，是二战后确立的制度体系中最为根本的一部分。这一联盟无疑在很长一段时间中都助力于在经济依存、开放市场和国际合作的基础上，保持和平、稳定与发展。

But now there is a chance that nationalism, isolation, and confrontation will replace the existing world order. Brexit may only be a sign of more to come. Europe is clearly having a hard time dealing with the consequences of globalization and the loss of its exceptionalism. Anti-establishment political parties seem to thrive everywhere, from supposedly stable and successful states like Germany and the Netherlands, to countries facing economic difficulties, like Italy and Spain. In this context, there are plenty of other candidates who might leave the Union. And the United States has its own problems with populism and isolation. 但现在，有一种新的可能，即民族主义、孤立与冲突将取代现有的世界秩序。而英国脱欧仅仅是多米诺骨牌效应的开始。欧洲在面对全球化后果与特殊性丧失时着实不易。从被认为稳定与成功的德国与荷兰，到面临经济困难的意大利与西班牙，反对现存体制的政党似乎在所有地区都蓬勃发展。在这一状况下，可能离开欧盟的成员国还有不少。而美国，在民粹主义与孤立主义方面又有自己的问题。

Can the euro survive ? Although the United Kingdom did not use the euro, the viability of the currency is still affected by Britain’s vote to leave the EU. Brexit reopens the possibility of a euro breakup, because it highlights the loss of sovereignty implied by European Monetary Union (EMU) and the remaining requirements on monetary, fiscal, and financial union. In the current political climate, with German and French leaders struggling for popularity, it is difficult to envisage a renewed commitment to deepen economic and political integration within the EMU. And without this deepening, market doubts on the sustainability of the euro can only grow.

2.  欧元能否存活？尽管英国并不使用欧元，欧元的可行性依旧被英国脱欧所影响。英国脱欧意味着欧元可能崩溃，因为它凸显了欧洲货币联盟（EMU）权威性的丧失以及货币、财政与金融联盟的遗留要求。在现今的政治情况来看，德国与法国的领导者都在苦苦追求支持率，很难想象能有新鲜出炉的共同承诺来深化与欧洲货币联盟的经济与政治合作。而如果没有这样的深入合作，市场对于欧元稳定性的怀疑只会愈演愈烈。

The idea of a “two-speed Europe” is lethal to the economic recovery and growth of periphery countries, where any doubt about the continued support of the European Central Bank — and an eventual resolution to the debt crisis through an Euro Area fiscal backstop– can only bring further difficulties.“双速欧洲”的概念，对边缘国家的经济复苏与发展是致命的。在这些国家，任何对于欧洲中央银行持续帮助，以及通过欧洲区域财政支援对债务危机的最终解决方案的怀疑，都只会带来更多的困难。

Will this uncertainty bring an abrupt end to the mild economic recovery? The short answer is that Brexit has made recession in the UK and in Europe both more likely. The two-year period to negotiate a new agreement with a departing country stipulated in Article 50 of the European Treaty makes no sense to financial markets. They will not wait for European leaders to make up their minds — as we already witnessed Friday, where stock markets in periphery countries fell more than any day in the 2008 crisis. The thought that such uncertainty may not affect the U.S. or the global economy is pure fiction; after all, Europe amounts to about a third of global GDP.

3.  这一不确定性是否会让缓慢的经济复苏突然停滞？        简单来说，英国脱欧使得国内与欧洲更有可能进入衰退状态。对于金融市场来说，花费两年时间与一个根据欧盟条约第50条款规定即将要脱离欧盟的国家达成新的协议根本毫无意义。它们不会坐等欧洲的领导者们下定决心，就像我们周五所目睹的，边缘国家的股票市场的跌幅比2008金融危机时更大。认为这一不确定性不会影响美国或是全球经济无疑是痴人说梦，毕竟，欧洲约占有全球GDP的三分之一。

If recession is now in the cards, how can policy makers react ? Central bankers around the world are monitoring events closely, and their policy tools — swaps, liquidity, further quantitative easing — are ready to be implemented. It seems likely that the Federal Reserve may put its rate hike on hold.

4.  如果经济衰退已经注定，政策制定者该如何应对？全球的央行人员一直密切关注着重大事件，也已经做好了运用互换协议、流动性与进一步量化宽松的准备。美联储很可能将搁置利率上调计划。

But there is only a limited impact monetary policy can have in the current circumstances. The problem is political, the uncertainty is fundamentally political, and the solutions need to be political. Postponing hard choices does not appear a reasonable strategy.但对于当前的状况，货币政策影响有限。问题在于政治，不确定性从根本上来说是政治性的，也必须通过政治途径解决。一味推延做出艰难决定的时间并非良策。

Fernando Fernandez是IE商学院的经济学教授，同时也是一位活跃的宏观经济、监管与金融事务方面的国际顾问。