翻译天堂 2016-09-06
Report points to G20’s ‘miserable’ record on trade and investment
When leaders of the G20 group of the biggest developed and emerging economies meet in China at the weekend, they can expect to be pressed by their hosts to take action to free up international trade and investment. It will be a tough ask.
20国集团(G20)领导人上周末在中国举行峰会，东道主敦促各方采取行动，推动贸易和投资自由化。这个要求很难办到。
A report last week shows that the G20 nations have acted overwhelmingly to restrict rather than liberalise trade in investment-related goods in recent years, while the rate of “greenfield” foreign direct investment in new productive activity has slowed — a record of G20 policymaking the report’s lead author described as “miserable”.
上周发布的一份报告显示，在投资相关商品(investment-related goods)领域，G20国家近年采取的贸易限制措施远多于贸易自由化措施；同时，新生产活动中“绿地”外商直接投资(FDI)所占的比率已经放缓——该报告的第一作者形容G20在政策制定方面的成绩很“糟糕”。
China has put promoting trade and investment at the core of its presidency of the G20 this year. In a message on the G20 website, President Xi Jinping points to “growing concern over the persistent decline in global trade growth” and notes that “protectionist measures in trade and investment have been rising significantly”.
中国已将促进贸易和投资作为今年担任G20轮值主席国的核心要务。在G20官网上的一则消息中，中国国家主席习近平指出，人们日益担忧全球贸易增长的持续下滑，贸易和投资领域的保护主义措施明显增加。
Fighting protectionism in China’s overseas markets is now a top priority of policymakers in Beijing, according to one senior official who declined to be named.
一位不愿透露姓名的高层官员表示，与海外市场的保护主义作斗争如今是北京政策制定者的重中之重。
But last week’s report by the independent Global Trade Alert (GTA), which has monitored changes in trade and investment policies at the G20 since its heads of government first met in November 2008, suggests little if any progress is likely.
但独立机构“全球贸易预警”（Global Trade Alert，简称GTA）上周发布的报告显示，在反对保护主义方面，即便真有什么进展也是微乎其微。该机构监测了G20国家自2008年11月举行首届峰会以来在贸易和投资政策方面的变化。
To mid-August this year alone, it says, nearly 350 measures were introduced that discriminate against foreign commercial interests, far outnumbering the just over 100 measures introduced to liberalise trade.
上述报告称，仅今年初到8月中旬，各国出台的歧视外国商业利益的措施就接近350项，而贸易自由化措施仅100多项。
The gap between measures that restrict and liberalise trade in capital goods — the machinery and other goods used in productive activity — is far greater, as seen in the first chart, showing the accumulated total of such measures since the first G20 summit.
在资本货物（capital goods，用于生产活动的机械及其他货物）领域，贸易限制措施与贸易自由化措施之间的数量差距更大——如图一所示，该图显示出自首次G20峰会以来此类贸易保护措施的总数。
Such measures, the GTA suggests, have had a pronounced negative impact on FDI and therefore on global growth. It finds that, in real terms and properly benchmarked, greenfield FDI remains far below levels seen before the global financial crisis of 2008-09.
“On the trade and investment side, the G20 has been a big disappointment,” said Simon Evenett, a British academic at the University of St Gallen who heads the GTA.
GTA认为，这些保护主义措施已对FDI及全球增长造成了明显的负面影响。该组织发现，按实际值计算并选择恰当的参照指标进行衡量，绿地FDI仍然远低于2008-09年全球金融危机前的水平。
“The G20’s big goal is to restore growth and it has put investment at the centre of that,” he added. “But its governments are distorting trade in investment goods much more than they are liberalising it. Their record is miserable.”
GTA负责人、瑞士圣加仑大学(University of St Gallen)英籍学者西蒙•伊夫尼特(Simon Evenett)称：“在贸易和投资方面，G20的表现令人大为失望。”
As the GTA report notes, G20 governments have implemented more than 10 times as many restrictive measures than liberalising measures affecting trade in capital goods. It adds: “It is difficult to think of a statistic that better highlights the lack of coherence between the ends and means of the G20.”
“G20的主要目标是恢复增长，它将投资作为这个目标的核心，”他接着说，“但各国政府做得更多的是扭曲投资品贸易，而非推进自由化。他们的成绩很糟糕。”
It argues that a pickup last year in global greenfield FDI — reported by Unctad, the UN trade and investment body, on the basis of data supplied by fDi Markets, a unit of the Financial Times that monitors cross-border greenfield investment — masks a real-term decline in recent years.
上述报告指出，在资本货物贸易方面，G20各国政府实施的限制措施数量是自由化措施的10倍以上。报告补充说：“很难再想象出一项更能突出G20目标与手段之间缺乏一致性的统计数据了。”
Adjusting for inflation, greenfield FDI has declined since 2008 and remains well below the levels recorded before the global financial crisis, according to the GTA. Similarly, calculated as a percentage of global fixed capital formation, or the existing stock of FDI, it remains well below those levels, as the second chart shows.
报告称，去年全球绿地FDI的好转（这是联合国贸易与发展会议(UNCTAD)依据fDi Markets提供的数据进行分析得出的结论，fDi Markets是英国《金融时报》旗下监测跨境绿地投资的一个部门）掩盖了近年来实际数值的下降。
“This speaks to the question of how much FDI is contributing to global growth,” Mr Evenett said. “If there is less of it, there is less fuel going into the system.”
GTA表示，经通胀调整后，绿地FDI自2008年以后出现下降，目前仍远低于全球金融危机前的水平。同样，按占全球固定资本形成总额或者现有FDI存量的百分比计算，绿地FDI也仍远低于金融危机前的水平（如图二所示）。
Courtney Fingar, head of content at fDi Intelligence, the FT group that includes fDi Markets, said protectionism in trade and investment had gone together in recent years.
“这说明了目前有多少FDI在促进全球增长的问题，”伊夫尼特说，“如果FDI减少，整个体系中的动力也会减少”。
“The retrenchment we’re seeing in trade affects investment as well,” she said. “The problem is that you get restrictive rules on investment in the emerging markets that would most benefit from attracting greenfield FDI.” She said some governments had been deterred by their experience of foreign investment in extractive industries.
英国《金融时报》集团旗下数据部门fDi Intelligence的内容主管考特妮•芬加(Courtney Fingar)表示，近年来，贸易与投资领域的保护主义已经走到了一起。上文说的fDi Markets就隶属于fDi Intelligence。 “我们看到的贸易方面的收缩还影响到了投资，”她说，“问题是新兴市场投资方面出现了限制性规定，它们本该从吸引绿地FDI中受益最多。”
“Governments have a fear of being exploited, usually coming from their experience in resources,” she said. “They then apply that to manufacturing and other areas that would be of benefit to local people.”
她说，有些国家的政府已经被他们在采掘业的外商投资吓怕了。“这些政府有一种害怕被压榨的心理，这通常源自他们在资源领域的经历，”她说，“他们于是把相关经验用到了可使本地民众受益的制造业及其他领域。”
