weibo.com/mtiyes  翻译天堂  2016-05-21

'Authoritative' pessimism in China

中国“权威人士”的悲观主义

CHINA'S ECONOMY, long a source of global dynamism, is changing intoa source of instability. Growth, still rapid by international standards, isgradually decelerating, as a nearly three-decade-old investment- and export-ledstrategy delivers diminishing returns. Yet the Communist Party, beholden to - or composedof - interest groups that benefit from the status quo, has not shifteddecisively toward more reliance on consumer demand and investment by privatefirms. Instead, Beijing continues to goose short-term growth with loans tobloated state-owned banks and industries.

中国经济长久以来都在推动世界经济增长，而现在它却逐渐演化成造成世界经济不稳定的因素。虽然按照国际标准来看，中国的经济增速仍旧很快，但其近三十年以来一直由投资和出口主导的战略已逐渐实效，由此带来的收益逐年递减。然而，受惠于各类从现状中牟利的利益团体、或者说由就是这些利益团体组成的共产党，并未明确作出以消费者需求和民营企业投资为主导的方向调整。相反，中国政府继续利用贷款的方式来刺激其臃肿的国有银行和工业获取短期增长。

One especially politically risky effect has been a flood of cheapChinese steel exports - prompting retaliatory noises from Washington and worker protests in Europeand lending credibility to the campaign of Donald Trump. Financier George Soroshas warned that China's buildup of public and private debt may prove asunsustainable as the U.S. housing bubble whose burst helped cast the world intorecession eight years ago.

一个风险极高的政治后果即中国大量廉价钢铁的出口——招致华盛顿方面的报复性反倾销声潮、欧洲工人的强烈抗议，以及唐纳德·川普在美国总统大选中的信贷信用问题。金融家乔治·索罗斯（GeorgeSoros）警告称，中国的政府和私人债务累积将如同美国房地产泡沫一样，根本没有可持续性可言；八年前，美国房产泡沫的破灭使得全世界陷入了经济衰退的境地。

For months, Chinese officials have played down the issues, whilefumbling to assert their legendary but obviously exaggerated control over theeconomy. Now comes a lengthy interview on the front page of the officialPeople's Daily, in which an "authoritative" unnamed source validatespessimism about China's situation. The debt buildup is like "growing atree in the air," the source said, and is creating "systemicfinancial risks" that could be "deadly." The implication: Timeis running out to speed structural reforms, and someone high up in officialcircles is being granted unusual space in the media to ring the alarm.

几个月来，中国官方一直对问题轻描淡写，与此同时，还笨嘴拙舌的对外宣示自己对本国经济传奇般的掌控力，但明显让人感觉言过其实。《人民日报》刊发在首页对一位匿名“权威人士”的长篇采访证实了关于中国局势的悲观主义。该消息人士表示，债务累积就像“高空种树”，会带来“致命”的“系统金融风险”。这也就意味着：加快结构改革、赋予官方高层非同寻常的空间来通过媒体向社会敲响警钟的时间已经所剩无几。

To be sure, such intriguing utterances have appeared before,inspiring hopes of a true policy shift that then failed to pan out. Beijingremains deeply wedded to its state industries and infrastructure projects,including $770 billion worth (over three years) announced this week. At a minimum,though, the People's Daily article hinted at some sort of internal discussion,which not only China but also the world desperately needs.

诚然，这样耐人寻味的言论以前也曾出现过，激起人们对于政策真正作出转变的期待，但最后却总无疾而终。中国政府依然固守自身国有企业和基础设施建设，并在本周宣布将在未来三年期间对这一领域投入近5万亿元人民币(合7700亿美元)。话虽如此，《人民日报》还是在某种程度上表明了国内尚存争议，这对中国来说是极其必要的，对全世界也是如此。

The United States can and should try to push China in the rightdirection, through both diplomacy and pressure, such as the use of legal powersit has within the World Trade Organization and under U.S. trade law. Example:China badly wants official designation as a "market economy" by theWTO, which, among other benefits for Beijing, would make it harder to pursuecases against China for steel dumping and other unfair practices. Washingtonand its European partners are slow-walking that decision now, and they shouldbe.

美国能够，也应该通过外交和施压手段将中国引向一个正确的方向，比如利用其在世贸组织和美国贸易法所拥有的法律权利。举个例子，中国迫切希望获得世贸组织 “市场经济”地位，因为这样会给中国带来众多利好，其中一点就是其它国家将更难以对中国的钢铁倾销和其它不公行为获得胜诉。美国和其欧盟伙伴均没有明显意愿想要承认中国的WTO“市场经济”地位，这也是理所应当的。

The Clinton administration deepened economic engagement with Chinatwo decades ago on the premise that it would gradually mold China into aresponsible participant in the rules-based global trading system. In hindsight, the UnitedStates underestimated China's rulers' nationalism and their overriding concernfor political power. The irony is that the Chinese people would benefit morethan anyone else from an economic overhaul - one geared more toward theirconsumer needs, which U.S. and other producers would be freer to meet inefficiency-boosting competition with Chinese firms. Reform could help prevent a"hard landing" for China, thus sparing the global economy turmoil, aswell.

20年前，克林顿政府在将中国逐渐塑造为遵循全球贸易体系规则负责任参与者的前提下，深化了与中国的经济往来。现在看来，美国低估了中国统治者的民族主义热忱以及对政治权利的无比关切。然而，具有讽刺意味的是，如果经济大幅整改，中国民众将成为最大受益者。整改后的经济更加注重以消费者需求为导向，而美国和其它国家也都能更自如应对与中国企业之间在提高效率领域的竞争。改革有助于避免中国经济出现“硬着陆”，同时也能防止全球经济出现混乱。

Indeed, if China wants to stave off a protectionist turn in the United States andEurope, getting its own house in order would be a good way to do it. ThePeople's Daily's "authoritative" source seems to realize that.

的确，如果中国真的希望阻止美国和欧洲的贸易保护主义的势头，那么整顿好自身是一个不错的选择。《中国日报》的“权威人士”似乎已经意识到了这一点。

Vocabulary：

1.       be beholden to 受惠于；受制于

2.       retaliatory [ri'tæliətəri] adj. 报复的

例：There's beentalk of a retaliatory blockade to prevent supplies from getting through.

有人在谈论实施报复性封锁，以阻止供应物资通过

3.       In hindsight 回想；回首看来

例：Only inhindsight do we understand how God intended a problem for good.

只有在事后，我们才明白，在问题的背后总是有神美好的心意。

4.       stave off  避开；延缓

例： ...a cost-savingplan intended to stave off bankruptcy.

                          ...一个旨在避免破产的成本节约计划。