导读
根据数据显示，全球智能手机市场从2014年以来销量增速一直都处在下滑状态，2016年增速下滑到个位数，2017年增速已经降到了2.8%，特别是在北美、西欧、日本以及成熟的亚太地区，智能手机用户的渗透率已接近90%，可运作的空间已经大幅减少。而国内智能手机的销量也是在经历了2015年到2016年两年的快速增长之后，在2017年下降到-11.6%，2018年前两个季度更是下降到-26.2%，从数据来看，国内市场发展的这几年，行业红利几乎消失，步入国际市场后尘。
Peak smartphone
智能手机销量触顶
Bad news for Apple. Good news for humanity
苹果的坏消息，人类的好消息
The maturing of the smartphone industry should be celebrated, not lamented
智能手机行业走向成熟。哀哉？乐哉！
WHEN APPLE cut its revenue estimate for the last quarter of 2018 because of unexpectedly slow sales of iPhones, markets convulsed. The company’s share price, which had been sliding for months, fell by a further 10% on January 3rd, the day after the news came out. Apple’s suppliers’ shares were also hit. Last week Samsung, the world’s largest maker of smartphones by volume, which also sells components to other smartphone-makers, said its sales were weaker than expected for the quarter, too.
由于iPhone出乎意料地滞销，苹果公司调低了2018年第四季度的收入预期，引发市场震荡。1月3日，也就是这一消息传出后第二天，苹果已持续下滑数月的股价进一步下跌10%。其供应商的股价也受到打击。上周，全球销量最大的智能手机制造商三星（也向其他智能手机制造商销售零部件）表示2018年第四季度销售额也低于预期。
Analysts reckon that the number of smartphones sold in 2018 will be slightly lower than in 2017, the industry’s first ever annual decline. All this is terrible news for investors who had banked on continued growth (see Business). But step back and look at the bigger picture. That smartphone sales have peaked, and seem to be levelling off at around 1.4bn units a year, is good news for humanity.
分析师认为，2018年智能手机销量将略低于2017年，这是该行业首次出现年度销量下滑。对于指望手机销量持续上升的投资者来说，这些消息很糟糕。但不妨后退一步，放眼全局。智能手机的销量见顶，可能停留在每年约14亿部的水平，这对普罗大众来说是个好消息。
People have voted with their wallets to make the smartphone the most successful consumer product in history: nearly 4bn of the 5.5bn adults on the planet now have one. And no wonder. They connect billions of people to the internet’s plethora of information and services. Phones make markets more efficient, compensate for poor infrastructure in developing countries and boost growth. Yes, they can be used for wasting time and spreading disinformation. But the good far outweighs the bad. They might be the most effective tool of development in existence.
人们用自己的钱包投票，让智能手机成为史上最成功的消费产品：全球55亿成年人中有近40亿拥有智能手机。这不足为奇。智能手机将数十亿人与互联网上形形色色的信息和服务连接起来。它们提升了市场效率，弥补了发展中国家基础设施的不足，促进了经济增长。诚然，人们也会用手机消磨时间和传播虚假信息。但其利远大于弊。它们可能是人类现有的最高效的发展工具。
The slowdown does not reflect disenchantment; quite the contrary. It is the result of market saturation. After a decade of rapid adoption, there is much less scope to sell handsets to first-time buyers as so few of them are left. That hits Apple the hardest because, despite a relatively small market share (13% of smartphone users), it captures almost all of the industry’s profits. But Apple’s pain is humanity’s gain. The fact that the benefits of these magical devices are now so widely distributed is something to be celebrated.
销售放缓并不代表魅力尽失。恰恰相反。这实则是市场饱和的结果。经过十年的快速普及后，以首次购买者为对象的手机销售空间大幅缩窄，因为这样的消费者已所剩不多。这对苹果的打击最大，因为尽管其市场份额相对较小（占智能手机用户的13％），却几乎拿走了整个行业的利润。然而，苹果之痛正是大众之利。如今人类能普遍享受这些奇妙设备带来的便利，值得庆祝。
What about the people who still lack a smartphone? Sales of 1.4bn units a year implies 2.8bn users who replace their handsets every two years, or 4.2bn who replace them every three years. The reality is somewhere in between, and replacement cycles are lengthening as new models offer only marginal improvements. Many phones are used for longer than three years, often refurbished or as hand-me-downs. So even with flat sales, the longer gaps between upgrades mean that overall penetration is still rising. People who already have phones benefit, too. For all but the most obsessive gadget fans, the slowing treadmill of upgrades comes as a welcome relief.
那些仍然没有智能手机的人呢？每年售出14亿部，意味着28亿用户每两年换一次手机或42亿用户每三年换一次手机。现实介乎这两者之间。而且由于新机提升不大，人们的换机周期也在变长。许多手机的使用时间超过三年，常常是被翻新或转给他人使用。因此，即使销售持平，换机间隔拉长意味着智能手机的整体渗透率仍在上升。已经有手机的人也会受益。除了科技产品狂人，不需要频繁更换手机让其余人都更感轻松。
Does that mean innovation is slowing? No. The latest phones contain amazingly clever technology, such as 3D face-scanners and cameras assisted by artificial intelligence. But as with mature technologies such as cars or washing machines, extra bells and whistles no longer make a deep impression.
这是否意味着创新在放缓？并不是。最新的手机搭载了精妙的技术，例如3D人脸扫描器和人工智能相机。但是，与汽车或洗衣机等成熟的技术一样，新添加的花哨功能已无法让消费者惊艳。
More important is that smartphones support extra innovation in other areas. Deploying apps and services on an immature platform whose prospects are uncertain is risky; on a mature one it is not. Smartphones thus provide a foundation for today’s innovations, like mobile payments and video streaming, and for future ones, such as controlling “smart” home appliances or hailing robotaxis.
更重要的是智能手机支持了其他领域的创新。在前景不明的不成熟平台上部署应用和服务是有风险的；反之则安全得多。因此，智能手机为现在与未来的创新提供了基础，无论是移动支付和视频流媒体，还是控制“智能”家电或网约无人驾驶出租车。
As computers become smaller, still more personal and closer to people’s bodies, many techies reckon that wearable devices, from smart watches to augmented-reality headsets, will be the next big thing. Even so, finding another product with the scope of the smartphone is a tall order. The smartphone retains its promise as the device that will make computing and communications universal. The recent slowing of smartphone sales is bad news for the industry, obviously. But for the rest of humanity it is a welcome sign that a transformative technology has become almost universal.
随着计算设备变得更小、更个性化、更贴身，许多技术人员认为，从智能手表到增强现实头盔的可穿戴设备将是下一大热门领域。即便如此，要找到另一个影响力能媲美智能手机的产品也是极为困难的。智能手机不负使命，成为普及计算和通信的设备。近期智能手机销售放缓对行业本身来说显然是个坏消息，但对于社会大众而言则是个令人欣喜的迹象，说明这项变革性技术已几乎惠及所有人。
