5G or fifth column?
Ericsson’s boss doubts that Huawei’s woes will help its European rivals
爱立信的老板认为封杀华为反而不能帮助其欧洲竞争对手
5G还是第五纵队?音频请点击
IN THE DAYS of pre-internet capitalism the troubles of one dominant company in an industry tended to be good news for its rivals. In today’s hyperconnected world a threatened ban by Western governments of Huawei, the Chinese market leader in telecoms gear, is also a worry for its competitors.
在互联网资本主义时代之前，一个行业里的主导企业遭遇的麻烦往往是其竞争对手的好消息。在今天的超连接世界中，西方国家政府威胁禁用中国电信设备市场的领导者华为的产品，却也让它的竞争对手感到担忧。
Both Ericsson, a Swedish company, and Nokia, a Finnish one, would prefer the geopolitical saga to end, the better to focus on competing for contracts related to the launch of super-speedy “fifth generation” (5G) mobile-phone networks.
瑞典的爱立信和芬兰的诺基亚都希望这场旷日持久的地缘政治大戏早日结.束，让它们能更好地专注在争取超高速“第五代”(5G)移动电话网络的推出带来的合同。
The American government is not letting up its campaign to persuade allies to freeze Huawei out of 5G tenders. It worries that Huawei’s kit may contain “back doors”—deliberate security flaws inserted to allow Chinese spooks eavesdrop on, or attack, phone networks.
美国政府仍在努力说服盟友禁止华为参与5G招标。它担心华为的产品可能包含“后门”(蓄意留下的安全漏洞)，能让中国的间谍窃听或攻击电话网络。
Earlier this month, in a letter to Germany’s economics minister, America’s envoy to Berlin, Richard Grenell, threatened to cut back American co-operation with German security agencies if the country allowed Huawei or other Chinese firms to participate in the roll-out of 5G.
上月早些时候，美国驻德国大使理查德.格雷内尔(RichardGrenell)致信德国经济部长，威胁称如果德国允许华为或其他中国公司参与部署5G，美国将减少与德国安全机构的合作。
Mike Pompeo, America’s secretary of state, suggested in Hungary recently that doing business with Huawei could tip decisions on where America stations troops.
美国国务卿迈克蓬佩奥(MikePompeo )近期在匈牙利表示，与华为做生意可能会影响美国派驻军队的决策。
So far Britain and Germany, among others, have not yielded to American demands. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said on March 19th that she does not believe in excluding a company from the German market “simply because it’s from a certain country”, though a final decision is pending.
到目前为止，英国和德国等国还未顺应美国的要求。德国总理默克尔3月19日表示，德国还没有做出最终决定，但她认为不应“只是因为它来自某个国家”就将一个公司排除在德国市场之外。
Even if America prevailed in Europe, as it has in Australia and Japan, Ericsson and Nokia are unlikely to win back much of the market they have lost in recent years.
即使美国在欧洲的游说像在澳大利亚和日本那样获得成功，爱立信和诺基亚也不太可能赢回太多在近年失去的市场。
Between 2015 and 2018 Huawei’s share rose from 24% to 28%; Nokia’s dipped from 20% to 17% and Ericsson’s from 15% to 13%. An escalation in the war on Huawei might prompt Beijing to retaliate by kicking Western firms out of China.
2015年至2018年间，华为的市场份额从24%上升至28%；诺基亚从20%下降到17%,爱立信从15%下降到13%。对华为的战争如果升级，可能会促使中国实施报复,将西方企业赶出中国。
That would be a blow to the Nordic duo. China accounted for 10% of Ericsson’s 211bn krona ($24.2bn) in global sales last year. The company runs two research and development sites in China. Nokia derives a similar share of revenues from the Chinese mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
这将对这两家北欧企业造成沉重打击。去年，在爱立信2110亿克朗(242亿美元)的全球销售额中，中国市场贡献了10%。爱立信还在中国设有两个研发中心。诺基亚来自中国大陆、香港和台湾的收入所占的份额也与爱立信相当。
Extra sales in Europe in the event of a Huawei ban would not offset losses in China, argues Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research, not least because the Chinese will launch 5G a year or two earlier.
新街研究(NewStreet Research)的皮埃尔费拉格( PierreFerragu)认为，如果对华为的禁令生效，这两家企业在欧洲获得的额外销售额并不能弥补在中国的损失，尤其是因为中国会提前一两年前推出5G。
More important, worries Börje Ekholm, chief executive of Ericsson, a ban on Huawei would slow down the launch of 5G in Europe. The continent is already lagging three to four years behind America in 4G, the current generation of wireless technology, he says.
更重要的是，爱立信的首席执行官鲍毅康.( Borje Ekholm)担心对华为的禁令将延缓欧洲推出5G的进程。他表示，欧洲在这一代4G无线技术方面已经落后了美国三四年。
Uncertainty over regulation, pricing and, most of all, how to deal with Huawei, is likely to slow Europe down further. European operators are lobbying hard to maintain the choice between three purveyors; many prefer Huawei wares, which are often cheaper (and some say better).
在监管、定价，以及最重要的一点——如何应对华为——等方面的不确定性很可能进一步拖慢欧洲的步伐。欧洲运营商正在努力游说以求能继续在三家供应商中做选择。许多运营商更喜欢华为的设备，因为通常会更便宜(还有些人说更好)。
The spectre of a Huawei ban is putting a damper on Germany’s auction for 5G mobile spectrum that kicked off on March 18th in Mainz. The auction, which drew four big operators, is expected to last several weeks. All four bidders already make extensive use of Huawei hardware, such as antennae or routers. Upgrading to 5G will require splurging on new kit.
对华为禁令的忧虑影响了3月18日在德国美因茨(Mainz)开幕的5G移动频谱拍卖的热度。此次拍卖吸引了四家大型运营商，预计将持续数周。所有四家竞标企业都已经在广泛使用华为的天线或路由器等硬件。升级到5G将需要大量购置新设备。
Huawei wants to be one of their principal suppliers (though it may first need to meet more stringent security requirements which the German government is mulling). In November the Chinese company opened a lab in Bonn, the base of Germany’s cyber-security regulator, where its equipment can be tested.
华为希望成为它们的主要供应商之一(尽管可能首先需要满足德国政府正在考虑的更严格的安全要求)。去年11月，华为在德国网络安全监管机构所在地波恩(Bonn)开设了一个测试设备的实验室。
Though it is possible to ban Huawei completely from Europe, its biggest market outside of China, industry insiders warn that it would be hugely complex and costly. It would be especially disruptive in countries where Huawei is deeply embedded, such as Italy, Poland and Britain, says Stéphane Téral of IHS Markit, a research firm. With only a hint of hyperbole Bengt Nordstrom of Northstream, a consultancy, likens the resulting shock to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Most of Europe’s roughly 200 operators of mobile networks use Huawei’s 4G gear.
虽然要在欧洲这个华为在中国以外最大的市场全面禁用华为是可以实现的，但业内人士警告说这会极其复杂，且代价高昂。研究公司IHS Markit的斯特凡泰拉尔( Stephane Teral)说，在意大利，波兰和英国等大量使用华为产品的国家，禁令引发的混乱将尤其严重。北流咨询公司(North stream)的本格特.诺德斯特姆( Bengt Nordstrom )略带夸张地将这种冲击比作2008年的雷曼兄弟倒闭。欧洲约200家移动网络运营商中大多使用华为的4G设备。
Asked whether talk of a Huawei ban had any effect on the order books of Ericsson, Mr Ekholm responds that “the candid answer is no”.
当被问及围绕华为禁令的议论是否影响了爱立信的订单时，鲍毅康回应称“坦率说，没有”。
On March 18th TDC, Denmark’s biggest telecoms firm, confirmed that it was plumping for Ericsson over Huawei, its current equipment-maker, to build its 5G network. That deal, though, was struck before any concerns over Huawei were ever aired.
3月18日，丹麦最大的电信公司TDC证实将舍弃现在为自己提供设备的华为，选择爱立信为其建设5G网络。不过，这笔交易在因华为而起的种种担忧广为流传之前就已经敲定了。
So far, the entire controversy has been a headache for Mr Ekholm and his counterpart at Nokia, not a gift.
到目前为止，整体而言有关禁令的争议对鲍毅康和诺基亚总裁是麻烦而不是礼物。
